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Happy Monday!
Aug. 10th, 2020 01:48 pmOr whatever.
Anyway.
I was on FB, and there was some ad for some jewelry and a little bit of info about some teenager who invented social distancing over a decade ago. I was like, what? A little googling found me this:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3372334/
You should, right now, read the whole thing.
First, it is cool, because it is a teenager and her dad.
Second, it is a super high quality modeling paper, and honestly, those are freakishly rare in the wild.
But third — and I have buried the lede here — it is the Answer Key for all our interventions (except masks — masks are not mentioned in here at all) (and, ok, might be exaggerating). As near as I can tell, this is the base for all the other modeling, whose assumptions were always kind of astonishing in the context of C19. But if you were modeling using the ‘57-8 flu as your base case, everything suddenly makes sense. And the paper does do a second run that looks closer to ‘18-9 flu.
Interesting to think about modeling choices, always, and this paper is unusually clear about why they picked what they picked. The fact that their focus was on a small town tells you so much about why so many of the modeling choices that came later made so little sense.
Anyway.
I was on FB, and there was some ad for some jewelry and a little bit of info about some teenager who invented social distancing over a decade ago. I was like, what? A little googling found me this:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3372334/
You should, right now, read the whole thing.
First, it is cool, because it is a teenager and her dad.
Second, it is a super high quality modeling paper, and honestly, those are freakishly rare in the wild.
But third — and I have buried the lede here — it is the Answer Key for all our interventions (except masks — masks are not mentioned in here at all) (and, ok, might be exaggerating). As near as I can tell, this is the base for all the other modeling, whose assumptions were always kind of astonishing in the context of C19. But if you were modeling using the ‘57-8 flu as your base case, everything suddenly makes sense. And the paper does do a second run that looks closer to ‘18-9 flu.
Interesting to think about modeling choices, always, and this paper is unusually clear about why they picked what they picked. The fact that their focus was on a small town tells you so much about why so many of the modeling choices that came later made so little sense.