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I know, it seems like it can’t possibly only have _JUST_ wrapped up Q2, and yet.

Meanwhile, in reading, I am learning a ton! I feel like we need to revisit how we talk about political parties. We act like it is somehow weird, maybe even wrong when a party is made up of a slice of elite looking for fairly technical changes in how the government treats them plus a larger mass of voters who want something very, very different. You know: some of the party is there for the tax cuts, and the rest of the party is there for religious reasons. That kind of thing. But I’m staring at pages about how the tariffs interacted with “bonded warehouses”, and thinking, you know, I don’t think that’s weird. It hadn’t exactly occurred to me to think very hard about what the antebellum non-slaver parties cared about. I _knew_ they didn’t want to get involved in abolition (which is why I call them non-slavers, rather than anti-slavery). I _knew_ that they cared about _something_, but the active group of people that might have been their voters really cared about abolition instead, and more than one party collapsed as a result, until finally the South shot first and that clarified things for a time.

I’m starting to think that what they cared about might have been tariffs? Talk about not covering yourself in glory. No wonder they don’t want to talk about it.

Anyway. If you are a properly left-wing author who un-ironically quotes Marx, and you are talking about the politics of this crowd, really interesting paragraphs happen.

Next up: bonded warehouses being used for internally produced and sold domestic commodities like tobacco, whisky, etc. This makes perfect sense to me. If you are taxing a producer and they have not yet sold it, you can put the producer completely out of business. But there was no way at that point in time to tax at the time the consumer bought it. Letting producers sell their wares until it was fairly close to when they could sell it was a huge relief.

“To sustain the Union forces, Congress imposed a tax on whiskey in 1862 … Distillers pressured politicians for relief, and Congress obliged in 1866, granting warehousemen the right to store whiskey barrels under bond”

“The warehousing system incensed protectionists because they felt it undercut the rationale for tariffs. (These men were not buying that bonded warehouses gave succor to all Americans.) They adduced that, no matter how high tariffs climbed, imports would stream in, harbored in bonded warehouses, and that, consequently, merchants — mainly foreigners, “commercial parasites” — could hedge the political and economic vagaries of the national market. [Me: yeah, she really said national market, not international markets.] Merchants could mitigate an unfriendly tariff schedule by waiting it out, for rates were constantly changing. They could dodge a financial panic by shipping goods back to Europe, “rather than pay the duty on them or incur the risk of not being able to sell them,” as some did in 1857. If their time elapsed (they were granted up to three years of storage), they could withdraw their goods and sell them, capitalizing on the respite from customs duties. [If you can figure out what she means by capitalizing on the respite … please explain in a comment or email to me, because I cannot make any sense out of it. Happy to supply more context if you need it.] The protectionists’ barbs were warranted. [!!!] “The figures themselves” offered “eloquent” proof. In 1881, $9.5 million worth of goods were removed from bonded warehouses for re-export, versus $149 million for import — that is, to be dumped on the market.”

It’s a real puzzler. I mean, the tariffs had a range on them, but they were always high. And like sales tax, tariffs on a broad range of goods are incredibly regressive. Why did we do them? Well, the government needs to have money to operate, and you get the money from the people who have the money in a context where you can monitor it. The less labor-intensive tax collection is, the better it is. So, in the second half of the 19th century, tariffs were it. But that changed in the 20th century, of course.

I’m mostly weirded out by the use of the verb “dump”. That’s got a lot of present-day baggage, and I’m unconvinced that it was used that way in that era, which raises a lot of questions.

Moving on!

Farmers (and temperance advocates) wanting public storage of excess grain, with future value attributions, because that’s what happened with the whisky. Shades of politics around the strategic petroleum reserve today! Obviously, if you let someone put something currently worth 50cents a gallon in a warehouse and give them a receipt for $3 a gallon, its future price after aging when it is taken out for sale and when the duties would be collected, there is going to be abundant opportunities for shenanigans. HOWEVER, Orenstein goes straight to 1943 (yes, not 1843, but 1943) and tells a tale of someone who skipped entirely over the putting it into the warehouse type shenanigans and goes to fake bills. I thought earlier in the book that Orenstein used a poor analogy, when she should have been talking about earlier issues with bills; here it is again!

From Jake the Barber in 1943 to another mention of Salad Oil with the field warehousing scandal in the earlier footnote (see? She can see the relationship. These are not warehousing scandals; these are financial fraud scandals, closer to Bernie Madoff than warehousing fraud.). She uses 1940s and 1960s era scandals to intro this:

“Nonetheless, such transgressions fed a growing anxiety about warehousing”

OK, so, you cannot use a 1940s or 1960s era scandal to explain anxiety about warehousing in the 19th centure. You. Cannot. You have to use examples of the time, of which she supplies exactly none. NONE AT ALL. Entirely nothing. *sigh*

The actual anxiety about warehousing had a lot more to do with the fact that some industrial sectors were able to transfer their tax burden to closer to when they could sell the taxable item, compared to other industrial sectors, which had to bear that tax burden long before they could sell the taxable item. That’s it. That’s the whole story. This is a tax administration issue that was difficult to handle, and improved in a piecemeal, incremental way, and everyone who had not yet gotten their version of the problem solved was upset about it. Also, this is an era in which farmers who had been able to produce grain in the East were no longer able to compete with plains farmers, who were ramping up to change the entire planet with their oceans of grain, and all of that arises not even a tiny bit.

I really want to dig into the weird politics of innovative mill owners in the north aligning (in a super complicated and deeply problematic way) with temperance advocates, suffragists and abolitionists against working men in the North and planters (slavers before the war, and all-but-slavers after) in the South. It’s raging right below the surface of this book, but staying below the surface.

Anyway.

The balance of the anxiety paragraph includes “this unease was directed foremost at bonded warehouses … By the even of World War II, the security of the warehousing system was a source of insecurity. The wariness stemmed not only from the sense that bonded warehouses seemed to entice thieves and to incite invasions of imports. It also suggested that they threatened to expose cracks in the foundations of capitalism. The scariness of the second charge made the refutation of the first all the more pressing. For bonded warehousemen and their friends in government, the soundest response had long been to buttress the buildings themselves.”

Why is this here? She jumps _forward_ to Jake and Tino, which are _financial_ shenanigans, that NO AMOUNT of physical plant changes could possibly fix. Jake and Tino created fraudulent paperwork. They were engaged in a form of financial fraud (creating fraudulent bills). But it is used as a transition to go back to the 19th century, and talk about the physical plant.

Incoherent rhetorical structure. Not sure why it happened, because the next dense, long paragraph is a fucking _gem_ and I mean that with total sincerity. It describes how we got the built environment of ports before containerization. Storage on the waterfront meant less activity in the streets of the rest of the city (also! Less work for teamsters! Cost reduction but also decreases the number of workers, who were scarce in general, and when there was a crash, an idle workforce that could wreak havoc.), and required anyone stealing to go quite a ways before they could fence what they stole. Nice description of the influence of insurance companies in terms of getting people to build in fire resistant ways, and how construction techniques developed for mills spread to docks and warehouses.
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R. actually did some taxes today, so I figured I should to. Of course, when I described what I said I would do (carefully measured to avoid overcommitting and getting distressed), R. then foolishly attempted to stack more work on. I complained vociferously; he backed off and then I basically left him to deal with both kids until it was time to take T. to his swim lesson (no sitter today) while I puzzled over why the taxes were mysteriously somewhat higher than expected. I ultimately made a payment via Direct Pay, then ran error check and concluded that a contributing factor might be R. failing to have a basis in on some stock sales. I told him this; he said, no, the basis was there, but then went up and discovered now, I was right, and I had actually overpaid (only about 15% more than we really did need to pay at this point, and I will likely get information later that will eat into the remaining cushion). Oh well! Our extension deadline having been met, I was going to stop, but lacking anything else compelling, I wound up going in and doing a bunch more. I still have K-1s to do, but for most of those I am awaiting more information.

This was a very compressed schedule for me. My official Period of Procrastination was pretty limited.

I walked with M.
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A. has a birthday coming up, so I am awaiting a package related to that. She is back to wanting a FitBit, and this time we are getting her one of the watch ones.

Also, I see that another package is on its way: I think that is the last of the tax documents. Woo hoo. I foresee some time spent in front of the PC in my near future. Probably tomorrow. It is always so nice when it is done, but usually I procrastinate like crazy. For example, I paid estimated yesterday. I mean, I could have put it off for a few more days, but not very many!

Maybe the desire to procrastinate on housework has finally become greater than the desire to procrastinate on taxes. Or, more likely, the difference in amount of automation has finally pushed the convenience on paying taxes below the level that procrastination is even meaningful anymore.
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https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/young-seattle-residents-unsatisfied-with-nearly-everything-new-survey-finds/

People in Seattle are soooooo unhappy with their city, that they complain about everything. They complain even about their income tax _which they do not have_. I have lived in Seattle. There is no income tax in Seattle. I have lived in NH, which is quite proud of their lack of an income tax. I paid state income tax in NH (they do have an income tax it is just on unearned income, not earned income). I live now in Massachusetts, which residents (“Massholes”) have often referred to with abrasive affection as “Taxachusetts”. How people feel about their place of residence turns out to have surprisingly little to do with objective reality in those locations. Who knew?

Obviously, there is still a federal income tax, but that was not what the question was asking about.

I, personally, think that there is some sort of lesson to be learned here, but I am not at all sure what it might be right now. Mostly, I am chuckling, and using this as a metric for explaining why I do not take a certain category of complaints at all seriously.
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I decided I finally felt good enough to go for a walk. M. had been visiting (not Saturday, but thereafter), but I had not been walking with her because I just didn’t feel up to it. But we went around the block today and it went fine.

Also, I found this:

http://gabriel-zucman.eu/files/saez-zucman-wealthtax-warren.pdf

This is a description of Elizabeth Warren’s proposed 2% wealth tax on households with more than $50 million in assets (tax is on the amount _above_ the $50 M threshold), and an additional 1% tax on assets above $1 billion.

The authors of this have some sort of connection to Piketty. I know, he’s a darling of the left, but I’ve read his book and I have no respect for anyone who writes crap like that. I’m really disappointed in Warren. I used to really _want_ her to run for President; now, I really don’t. I have visions of a bunch of people highly placed on the Forbes list — mostly because of their ownership of their companies — suddenly thinking it would be a really good idea to support the Republican side in the next round of elections, to avoid the risk of this thing ever coming to pass. Making the cost-benefit analysis favor supporting Republicans to that small group of people seems pretty no-brainer. I suppose the theory is that it will galvanize Democratic voters? Maybe? Maybe it is a cynical ploy, toss out this 2%/3% ultra wealthy wealth tax, and then adding more marginal tax brackets with higher rates seems downright reasonable? I don’t know.

Finally, I don’t see anything in Saez and Zucman’s analysis to account for the inevitable dodges like creating a whole bunch of revocable trusts, each less than $50 million, as a way to dodge this thing entirely. Maybe that wouldn’t work? But I bet there could be endless litigation trying to figure it out.

ETA: Just think about the impact on political donations this proposal might generate.

https://www.opensecrets.org/overview/topindivs.php

If the top of the Forbes list is looking at owing a few billion a year in wealth tax, the top of that list might see a lot of much larger numbers in it, and donations might switch columns. Better galvanize a metric fuck ton of voters, to compensate for that.
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On Saturday, T. had martial arts, soccer and went to a birthday party in Tewksbury (the bowling alley). On Sunday, he went to track and both kids went to the horse. I had a nice chat with M. I had visits with M (walking partner) both days.

I was searching on reasons why one’s passport might be revoked, and stumbled across the implementation, this year, of policy on revoking one’s passport because one owes the IRS a bunch of money. In the “discretionary” waiver section was, “deceased”. So, basically, if someone owes the IRS $51K or more and doesn’t qualify for things like “is in a payment plan” or “qualifies for innocent spouse relief” or “in the military, in a combat zone” etc., you can still hang onto your passport if the IRS decides to let you keep it ... if you are dead.

I can’t even figure out how that makes sense.

Here are some links for you! Maybe you can explain it to me.

https://www.cpajournal.com/2018/07/17/passport-revocation-and-denial-for-seriously-delinquent-tax-debts/

My current theory is this: the deceased thing applies generally to the “is it considered seriously delinquent” part. And the “is it considered seriously delinquent” can result in passport revocation. But it can result in all kinds of other things to (or not), and that is where the deceased thing makes sense.
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T. had picture day today! A. has picture day tomorrow. Exciting!

I walked A. (she scootered) to school. When I went to pick her up from her half day, I rode my bike. I may scooter tomorrow.

R. picked up a couple chickens from the Costco on his last trip. A few days ago, I pulled one out of the freezer and started thawing it. It is now cool enough that it doesn't feel completely insane to roast a bird. I didn't do a thing to it (other than removing the neck from the cavity -- I never did find a packet of giblets so here's to hoping it wasn't there and I missed it!), other than putting it in a cast iron roasting pan and putting it in the oven at 300 degrees.

While I had the oven hot, I put in a package of bacon on a baking sheet.

I took the neck, and the rest of the dried up ginger, and some of the fresher ginger, and made some broth.

I also made a mashup of peanut sauce on spinach and pad thai for lunch. It was really tasty. I used almond milk instead of coconut milk for the peanut sauce, and that was fine. And I used cilantro stems, fennel chopped fine, and some ginger from the tube for the aromatics. I'm now using up the ancient box of rice noodles -- they take longer to soften up.

When the chicken was done, I put the roasting pan on the stove and turned one burner on. I got the pepper grinder and some flour and made gravy. I don't even particularly like gravy, but I had the time and I figured why not.

Earlier in the day, I submitted estimated tax payments. So, where once I procrastinated and got tons done and _then_ did taxes, now I do taxes and then still do stuff. I'm wondering if it was always driven by the weather and not the taxes all along. I ran Eufy in the upstairs hall.
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T. had his first track session of the fall. Yay! We went home for lunch. R. continued to do yard work (stump removal, planting blueberry bushes). A. had horse in the morning; T. had horse in the afternoon. I got to chat with M. I had a walk with my walking partner M.

Today is the 20th anniversary of my last day working full time. I have occasionally worked for pay (altho not for some years now -- I think I've finally figured out all the ways I wind up getting sucked into taking a job, and now stop that process firmly early), but never because I was trying to do so. Raising two kids (special needs kids) does mean that I don't feel particularly retired most of the time.

Looking back over the last two decades, it is clear to me that there were certain decisions I made financially that made my current position possible. Even tiny changes -- often ones that everyone else was very much in favor of -- would likely have resulted in me returning to full time employment already. Please feel compassion for elderly people whose money runs out in their 80s. Their choices are far more constrained than mine are (or were). And please support government policies which ensure that ordinary people with ordinary options and ordinary luck and ordinary judgment can still enjoy a comfortable old age without worrying about becoming homeless or not being able to afford their medication.

Tax people like me to pay for it. I'm totally fine with that.

Checks

Jul. 27th, 2017 10:23 am
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My sister posted a Bloomberg article about how the US is quite behind in terms of phasing out checks. In the comments thread, her friends said over and over again that the sticking point for many of them in terms of never writing checks again involved government agencies. I agreed, and then I thought, hmmm. Is it _really_ true that there isn't any kind of direct pay to the IRS? Massachusetts DOR has had a direct pay set up for ages. And I hadn't checked recently at the IRS.

They have a couple features I was not familiar with. One is an / my account with the IRS where I could, in theory, look at payment history and so forth. That would be handy! Another feature is a Direct Pay feature. I haven't really dug into that, but it looks like it is a fee-free transfer from a checking account. And it looks like you can do that as a payment associated with paper filing, and including for estimated taxes. Pretty neat! If I find out more, I may update this.

https://www.irs.gov/payments
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There are a variety of ways to divvy up the political parties in our system. Here are a few that are directly relevant to the tax code, its complexity and any chance it has of being simplified.

Democrats want to do some redistribution (have the rich pay more, and then send it off to those with less income/more demands on their resources to even out the inevitable unfairness of our political system). Republicans have a horror of redistribution.

Democrats kind of like the idea of having government being all orderly and with the structure matching the function: an agency for each category of activity, regulations on a per agency basis, etc. This is complicated, so on balance, they try to simplify by moving more up to the federal level instead of doing it at the state level. But life is full of unpleasant compromises, and they'd rather make their own state(s) have the right kind of rules than wait until the feds can be convinced to do it right.

Republicans kind of like the idea of government being small, and running as much of government functionality through a common system as possible. On balance, they would prefer the federal government to do as little as possible, and anything complicated that needs to be done, they'd like to push down to the smallest unit of social organization that it possibly can. In practice, that means to the state level. The more ideological members would just as soon everything was handled at some nuclear family level. But life is full of unpleasant compromises, so if we are going to have to distribute money to people -- people with kids, people who need health insurance, etc. -- and it is going to be done at the federal level, they'd like it done as cheaply as possible, which means, tax credits. They also like it when the feds do the redistribution _FROM_ the general tax revenue _TO_ states, to do what they like with (block grants). They'd rather make their own states have the right kind of rules than wait until the feds can be convinced to do it right.

In practice, this means things like: even when everyone agrees that we should implement some kind of program, we probably can't agree or by happy with how we decide to implement that program. Democrats want the feds to send money or money-equivalents to individuals around the country who meet rule defined criteria. Republicans want states to get that money to make their own rules for who should benefit from federal largesse. You can be cynical about either or both perspectives -- the phenomenon, however, is real.

Everyone agrees, periodically, that the tax code has become unfair somehow and that it has become onerously complex and difficult to comply with. Republicans tend to focus on how this makes it hard to do business, hire employees, compete with other countries. Democrats tend to focus on how the tax code contributes to increasing inequality and that it should be made more progressive to reduce inequality. Republicans want a simple code that gets a bunch of its simplicity by having a "flat" tax -- the same percentage taken from everyone regardless of income. Democrats want a simple tax code with a steep curve after some point taking more and more of greater and greater amounts of income. Occasionally, you'll get some oddball come along and suggest a wealth tax (Piketty); in practice, outside of things like property taxes, we don't do wealth taxes in the US, and for very good reasons (administering wealth taxes is _hard_ and honestly somewhat expensive).

The two parties are unlikely to ever happily agree to the basic structure of the tax code (ignoring a true flat tax, even the number of brackets and the rates for each bracket tends to be controversial). But it is difficult to make progress towards simplification. For example, getting rid of AMT would simplify the tax code -- it would also make it a lot less progressive. Getting rid of the AMT is a pure-play Republican thing. What about the mortgage interest rate deduction? It's pretty simple to show that the mortgage interest rate deduction increases wealth inequality over time and is probably regressive. It is also one of the few items that pushes households over the line into claiming itemized deductions vs. claiming the standard deduction. With Democrats liking getting rid of a regressive and/or wealth inequality increasing thing, and Republicans wanting a simpler tax code, you would _think_ this would be a thing they could agree to change.

But only if you forget that while people vote Republican or Democrat -- quite consistently -- people who own homes and have mortgages vote at much higher rates than people who don't. And that interest deduction is kind of a big deal.

I'm not saying it will never go away. Things happen. The world changes. But the tax code retains its complexity for very good reasons.

Here is why it is likely to get worse. With Republicans in charge, with their preference for helping people via the tax code vs. creating/increasing the scope of agencies and "entitlements", if the current administration is going to make good on its various campaign promises to help people caring for children, disabled family members or aging family members (remember -- Republicans want to push that kind of task as far down the social structure as they can), it will be via tax credits. That's exactly what was promised in the last campaign season. And that will NOT lead to a simpler tax code.

I vote Democratic. That's not likely to change, at least, not until we live in a world where both parties are really, really, really clear on the right of women to decide what happens to their own bodies. Which is a world which keeps receding further, and further into the future. But I can see the appeal of delivering money through the tax code -- even while I can clearly envision a number of problems with doing so. But whatever I might think of the _merits_, I think it is fairly safe to say that the tax code does not look like it is going to get a lot simpler any time soon. Unless by simpler, you mean, even more complicated.

Oh, and I argued all that without even getting into the weeds of the costs of implementing a program with an agency vs. through the tax code.
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I got the first quarter estimateds and extension form prepped to go. I'm not mailing them yet; I figure I would like to have a second set of eyes on them first. This may be the quickest in terms of when I first logged into TurboTax to when I was done for the April dance. I had spent some time earlier in the year as various pieces of paperwork arrived (property taxes, excise taxes, etc.), collecting them into the right place. Turns out that assembling the paperwork really is the big part of the job. I may post a few more comments on things I thought of while engaged in the process. Because there wasn't anything particularly new to figure out this year, I had more time to ruminate on how we do taxes in this country and why.

It was T.'s half day. So after doing a little vacation planning, watching NCIS and TRMS, it was time to go pick him up. I completely forgot everything for this: his outfit for gymnastics, his phone -- all of it. So we took our Starbucks beverages with us for a quick return home to retrieve the necessary items. Then off to the bank and then gymnastics. After that, we went to Whole Foods (I _HAD_ remembered my bags. Go figure.).

A. will be arriving home shortly and T. will be heading out with his sitter. I'm trying to decide whether I want to convince A. to go around the block with me, or if we should just vegetate. I feel like vegetating.
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Look, I get that Nixon was a horrible President. I understand that. However, we've had more than one horrible President, and honestly, the older I get, the more confused I am regarding precisely _why_ it was that people who were adults in the Nixon years hated him so very much.

http://www.taxhistory.org/thp/readings.nsf/cf7c9c870b600b9585256df80075b9dd/f8723e3606cd79ec85256ff6006f82c3?OpenDocument

Okay, then. Yeah, I get it now. Wow.

Someone could have mentioned this to me _sooner_.

I went looking because the almost certain nominee for one of the parties has been quite slow to release his returns, and TRMS was contextualizing Why Candidates Release Their Returns.

Fave sentence in the above linked article: "Ironically, Nixon may have been the first AMT taxpayer."
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I was supposed to go walking with my friend D., however, her daughter was not feeling well so that did not happen. I was then supposed to have my Dutch lesson, but my instructor is still digging out from under a huge project, so that did not happen. I watched Castle, then went for a walk with M. And then I was forced to accept that I really could not avoid taxes any longer.

So I went upstairs and started downloading crap into TurboTax. One of the accounts is on its third credentialing system in as many years, IIRC. They want "document IDs" and they involve a long string of letters and numbers (had to go log into that accounts website, find the PDF version of the tax forms and pull the document IDs off it). Unfortunately, I couldn't copy and paste the document ID. Well, I could copy it, but not paste it into TurboTax. And the zeros and letter O's were difficult to tell apart. After several fails, I resorted to copying the ID onto a sticky, where the default font made telling the two apart very easy. Voila.

I also had to confront the unwieldy mass of papers stacked up waiting to be massaged into a tax return. Usually, in October, the supporting documents get filed with a copy of the return, but for whatever reason, that didn't happen last year, and the resulting piles included intermingled documents for tax years 2013 (no, I don't know why either), 2014, 2015 and even a few for 2016 (I've taken to paying property tax early, ever since that year I completely forgot to pay, and didn't notice until I went to claim the deduction. Ooops).

Once the documents were separated out into appropriate files and/or stacks, I became demoralized, realized it was 12:30, and took myself down the street (in the car, no less, which I justified by bringing some items for the Middle Class Guilt Reduction Station that didn't quite make it on the Savers run last weekend) for a burger, fries and desultory conversation with other people at the bar and, of course, the ever lovely and entertaining B. Around 2, I forced myself away from the group (because more coffee was only going to make me jittery), and returned to the taxes, which at this point started going deceptively smoothly. In went charitable donations and excise and the pile moved from one side to the other, until I was down to one conspicuously missing document. I looked _everywhere_. It was _nowhere_. And honestly, I couldn't remember seeing it show up.

Kids arrived home and T. said he wanted a short day with the sitter and to have dinner out with us. I hadn't realized I was going to have a second sitter until after I'd already had lunch out, so, oops, two meals out in one day. Oh well. We went to Papa Razzi for dinner. I got an email back about the missing document. I had not lost it -- it hadn't gone out yet (today is 5 April!). "Any day now!" Yeah, sure. It's gonna be an estimated anyway, so like I even care.

So the last of it was printing extensions and writing checks and entering stuff on the Mass DOR site. Also, the bizarre realization that I've now run through this enough times that what once took me days, if not a week or more of start, get stuck, wait for R., continue, get stuck again, wait for R., etc. has turned into a single day of concerted effort. (Of course, he still has to do his part: installing and updating the software and entering all his information.) I got so much done around the house, avoiding doing the taxes, and now that need to procrastinate has been All Used Up for the next six months.

Oh well.
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Yeah, I know. Everyone reading this is going, but I filed mine in January. Well, good for you! You are a wonderful, hard working person and I'm glad you will have gotten all the way through the process in such an expeditious manner (<-- completely serious).

I am not asking for any sympathy when I note the following.

I did finally start entering data from pieces of paper and downloading electronic data into TurboTax today (my husband got around to this last Friday). Today, _after_ I got mostly through what I am able to do (my husband has the health insurance info, for example, and I am a little unclear on whether all the paperwork for the house property tax is in the folder), I received another envelope in the mail marked Important Tax Information Inside. It had a paper version of one of several incorrect forms I've received for a thing that ordinarily is quite well behaved and generates exactly one form that never needs to be changed, and gets it to me well before April 15. Fortunately, I _think_ I found the right number in one of the messages I received electronically. OTOH, I also got yet another electronic message from those good people this afternoon.

It doesn't really matter. I'm not gonna get final data from two other sources until late September (<-- wild optimism here) anyway, so I'll be filing for an extension with the rest of us schmucks. And it looks like the WAG (<-- wild ass guess) I put together a while back so I could make payments has largely turned out to be accurate. Hoodathunk?
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More from Lincoln. This is a terrible explanation.

"A notch in a tax schedule exists if a small change in behavior—such as the addition of a window—leads to a large change in tax liability. Notches are rare (Slemrod 2010) and not to be confused with kinks, which are far more common even today. A kink in a tax schedule exists if a small change in behavior leads to a large change in the marginal tax rate but just a small change in tax liability. The income tax in the United States, for example, has several kinks. Married couples with taxable income from $17,850 to $72,500 are in the 15 percent marginal tax bracket; couples with taxable income from $72,500 to $146,400 are in the 25 percent marginal tax bracket. If a couple with income of $72,500 were to earn an extra dollar, its marginal tax rate would jump to 25 percent, but its tax liability would increase
by just $.25."

I've never heard of notches or kinks in this context before. They seem like a useful concept and assuming these are plausible definitions, yay. But I don't know whether I can trust them, because of the example given. The hypothetical couple would pay a quarter on that last dollar, true. However, the _increase_ over what they would have paid if they had stayed in the 15% bracket is a dime. I would think that the "kink" of moving from one bracket to the other, in this case, should be characterized as ten cents over what they would have paid without that kink -- not 25c.

It's a somewhat interesting article. I knew about the window tax. I did _not_ know how it differentially impacted multi family vs single family dwellings. The English tax code was truly evil.

Wow. The conclusion of that article is just about the silliest thing imaginable:

"The ideal, in principle, is a neutral tax that raises the desired revenues but doesn’t distort taxpayer behavior so as to create additional burdens. Such a tax is a pure land-value tax levied on the site value of the land—that is, its value with no improvements. Thus, the assessed value of the land (and hence the tax liability of the owner) is completely independent of any decisions made by the owner of the land parcel. Unlike the window tax, which provides a compelling example of the additional costs that arise when property tax liabilities depend on the behavior of the property owner, a land-value tax creates no incentives for tax-avoiding behavior."

Let's think about this. If the tax is purely based on the value of the land -- not on whatever the hell you do with it, that would appear to encourage people to reduce the amount of land they own to an absolute minimum. The argument is that land + improvement taxes _discourage_ improvements leading to very low intensity/low density use of land. But a land-only tax would have the opposite effect: leading to hyper intensity/super high density use of land, far beyond what the taxed population might or might not actually want absent the tax.

I'm now sitting here thinking, for the first time ever, whether I want to keep pretending that I like reading Lincoln Institute articles. I _used_ to. But I'm not sure I do any more.
walkitout: (Default)
In the course of going through my inbox, I'm reading some of the Lincoln Institute newsletters that built up over time.

Mark Skidmore wrote on of these articles and after describing the severity of the property tax delinquency problem in Detroit, said this:

"delinquency will abate when tax
payers perceive that they receive commensurate
returns for their money. Thus, improving the tax-
service package by upgrading core services such as
public safety will reduce evasion and lateness (Alm
et al. 2014)."

I have to say, I sort of wonder about this, especially since the appraisal value and tax value of properties in Detroit is apparently quite lunatic when compared to market value. On the one hand, it sort of doesn't matter what the basis is that you tax on, as long as everyone's property is inflated or deflated by the same amount. On the other hand, while people are generally pretty okay with tax value that is _lower_ than market value, they can often get tetchy about tax value that is remarkably _higher_ than market value (there's a sort of stickiness involved, basically, psychologically).

Analysis of the problem focuses on all the revenue the city is failing to collect. I think that is misguided.

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20130221/METRO01/302210375

"Property owners increasingly are re-buying their land in tax-foreclosure auctions and legally erasing their debts. Last year, 600 properties were re-purchased by their owners, triple the number in 2010. That cost the city nearly $6 million in unpaid taxes."

Furthermore, banks and landlords are both allowing properties to go into foreclosure rather than pay the taxes. This suggests that in every conceivable way, taxes are too high. Skidmore is arguing, well, improve services and people will pay for them. But where are they going to get the money to improve services?

Either enforcement has to get a lot more serious (which is probably not viable, because it is expensive and likely to generate enormous pushback internally and externally) or taxes need to be charged at a level commensurate with the market value of the property. If letting a property go into foreclosure and buying it back is a no-brainer financially, then your taxes are way too fucking high.

And yet, apparently reducing taxes (either by correcting the appraisal and/or tax valuation, or by reducing the millage) isn't under discussion. Skidmore acknowledges that doing either of these would _also_ reduce delinquency (and wouldn't require additional service cost, imo -- might even save money if people started paying the lower rate -- better the $5 in reality than the fictional $50? Maybe?).

"Lowering tax rates would modestly reduce delinquency as well (Alm et al. 2014). Roughly double the regional average, Detroit tax rates are at the state’s maximum of 67 mills and 85 mills [DEITY ON A POGO STICK WTF!!!] per assessed value for homestead and non-homestead properties, respectively. While a reduction would improve the competitive position of the city relative to other communities in the region, currently there is no discussion of reducing property tax rates."

"Aligning assessed values more closely with actual market conditions will also reduce delinquency. Mayor Duggan recently promised to lower assessments by 5 to 20 percent across the city to reconcile them with state guidelines. However, Duggan’s promised reductions are just a small fraction of the 80 percent cut needed to bring assesment to market levels, according to Hodge et al. (2014a)."

If you live in Seattle proper, your rate is about 10 mill, IIRC. Also, Seattle tax valuation numbers run _lower_ than current market comps; even when they were briefly a little high during the bust, they were never as far off as Detroit's. (Ripped from King County's website: "Levy Code: 0010 Total Levy Rate: $10.29168" -- that's on a condo on Cap Hill, for example.) 1-2 years ago, the mirror image unit in my building on the same floor sold. The price paid was 25% higher than my last year's assessment (I have no idea whether that unit had any renovation done and, if so, when it was done. I've redone both bathrooms and the kitchen but the renos are 9-15 years old at this point; if they had more recent renos done, that might be reflected in the price. Our views are the same -- trees -- and we have comparable parking.).

The next time someone tells you how Detroit has so much trouble collecting your taxes, look at your $300-400K property in the city limits, and contemplate paying $25K a year in property taxes, instead of the 3-4K you are currently paying.
walkitout: (Default)
Subtitled: One Man's Quest to Turn Around the Most Unpopular Organization in America
Published by Harvard Business School Press, part of the "Leadership for the Common Good Series", of which I have previously read Bazerman and Watkins _Predictable Surprises_, however, which I do not appear to have reviewed in this blog. I got rid of Bazerman and Watkins' book in the Really Big Purge within the last year, because I felt like it was yet another too-superficial and often misleading treatment of some of Kahneman and Tversky's work, unless I have confused it with another book, but never mind that now.

Recently, the IRS has been attacked for allegedly politically motivated differential treatment of certain non-profits applying for 501(C)4 status. As a fan of Colbert, I was a little confused why any of them applied anyway, as it was not clear they had a filing requirement. Also, given that the groups in question oppose taxation/more taxation/modification of taxation other than net reduction overall AND reduction of their own and so on and so forth, I perceived any targeted attacks by the IRS as not partisan in motivation but rather what one hopes for in a competent tax collection authority (that is, if you're going to have tax collectors, you would like them to be making sure people pay, and groups which are in opposition to payment are rationally their enemies, and costing honest taxpayers as well).

While I have been filing tax returns since, um, either 1985 or 1986 (I forget), but only filing complex tax returns comparatively recently (post 1996, call it), my experiences with the IRS have been primarily _after_ the most recent previous set of scandals touching upon the IRS and which are the subject of Rossotti's book. And my experiences with the IRS, while not extensive, weren't trivial either and were incredibly positive. Did I wind up paying more money? Yup: due to error, omission and bad judgment on my part, generally speaking if the IRS and I have not agreed on something, it involved me writing them another check. Which I really don't have a problem with, as long as I'm told how much the check should be for and it is applied to my account and so forth and so on and that is the end of that. Which is has been. I watched a little of the scandalation, but with incomprehension, because I actually kinda like the IRS and I don't much care for the people doing the complaining. But I figured I should do a little research to make sure I wasn't blowing off something important.

Alas! There are very few books written for a general audience about the IRS. This one seems to be the most recent, a memoir written about being IRS Commissioner from 1997-2002. Rossotti was about to retire from a consulting business that was accustomed to making sure monster projects stayed on/got back on track for Very Large Companies, so he was a logical pick for Rubin and Summers to install at the IRS in the wake of those 1996-7 scandals. Rossotti delayed the second Really Big Contract (15 years, design build, little clarity on who was responsible for failures/delays -- no wonder he was appalled!), brought in A Few Good Men and Women, promoted many more, re-orged the whole shebang and made sure the IRS survived Y2K. Then he started the requirements phase of the Really Big Contract (oh, and the Bush stimulus checks and 9/11 occurred during his tenure). He also redirected audit focus.

About the Reorg: according to Rossotti, the last big reorganization occurred in 1952 and was intended to professionalize the agency and put an end to political influence (they used to appoint people, top to bottom! Jeepers! Er ...). That worked, but the world in 1952 was a very different world. He mentions jet airplanes and long-distance phone calls being expensive; equally relevant, everything was paper based in 1952 and no one in their right mind moves paper a foot further than they have to. The IRS was organized _locally_, with loose policy direction at the national level. With the exception of the 1960s era creation of the master file, fed by the local organizations, all IT and other innovation occurred within these geographic fiefdoms. Rossotti reorganized it into 1990s era business units, with tight national control and nationally controlled procurement of IT, management of facilities and personnel and so forth. This reorganization also enabled him to dramatically flatten the hierarchy, reduce silo-ing and make it possible to develop technical expertise on various elements of tax law. It also let them set up real call management, thus reducing busy signals, reducing wait time on hold and dramatically reducing wrong answers and repeat phone calls that result from wrong (or no) answers.

Predictably, because the IRS is So Big and because their IT was So Old and because the tax code is So Complex, the requirements phase of the Really Big Contract was a *insert your preferred swears here*. Despite a delay being inserted because of known problems with the requirements, the first deliverable on replacing the master file was delayed because of inaccuracies in the requirements phase; the master file would not be replaced until 2004 or thereabouts. [ETA: Still working on this, apparently. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Customer_Account_Data_Engine Also, batching has finally gotten down to daily! Woot! http://www.fiercegovernmentit.com/story/tigta-irs-must-improve-cade-2-requirements-management-testing-security/2013-01-03] If you were hoping for a book about bring the IRS up to our adult lifetime technology, this isn't it. I'm currently thinking about just going back and reading the IRS Data Books for the last, oh, 100 years because I suspect that's the best way to understand what happened and I can safely skim all the tables and stick to the explanatory sections. Also, all online! Woot! I am not, however, optimistic about how detailed the explanation of the upgrades will be. Still, I sampled 1960 and it was interesting. YMMV.

Audits until 1960 didn't really focus on lower income tax payers, but around that time, the agents who were capable of auditing more complex returns of higher income payers were re-deployed internally to more qualitative analysis (possibly in support of the requirements phase of the then new automation initiative that would create the master file?), and the IRS started doing more lower income audits. I'm not sure that bus was ever turned again, until Rossotti showed up and fixed the audit-focus to go after tax shelters. Which is scary and sad.

Rossotti concludes the book with some suggestions for simplifying the tax code. Given that the last big simplification we had (1986) resulted in a dramatic increase in inequality and a tax code which mushroomed back to Even More Complex in about a decade, I'm not convinced that simplification is such a brilliant idea. I do agree that the specific simplifications he advocates (making the definition of a child for tax purposes more consistent, reducing the complexity of tax/retirement account incentives) are probably worth doing. He notes that the IRS was distributing more program dollars than the SSA -- and at a lower _cost_ than the SSA, which led me to a very different set of conclusions than he came to (if it's really that cheap to administer benefits through the IRS, why bother to have any other program at all? Seriously!).

Rossotti is a real classic of the aging 1990s era business critter: he's a technocrat who finds lawyers infuriating and politicians (who make announcements with no basis in reality) misguided or worse. Of course I'm going to basically like him. But at the same time, I see a lot of limitations in that world view. If anyone knows of a more recent book about the IRS, I'd love to know about it. If anyone out there is thinking of writing one, I look forward to the results of your labours.

ETA: I bought this used on Amazon. I plan on keeping it, at least for a while.

all right

Dec. 10th, 2010 09:23 pm
walkitout: (Default)
I hate to be on the wrong side of Bernie Sanders. Wow. That was a long speech.
walkitout: (Default)
But apparently, someone gave them each a shot of Teh Crazy and they are acting like, I don't know what they are acting like, but it isn't reality based.

Here's a summary of the tax deal that I think might be somewhat accurate:

http://www.walletpop.com/blog/2010/12/07/the-deal-on-tax-cuts-what-it-means-for-you/

It isn't _just_ unemployment for 13 months and tax breaks for everyone + extra tax breaks on estate and upper brackets. There's other stuff in there too, not just things the Republicans wanted, either. The annual AMT adjustment is included. Looks like the Making Work Pay thing didn't get extended, which is a little sad.

But wait! This is an even better source:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/12/an_imperfect_but_not-that-bad.html

Looks like not getting Making Work Pay is just fine: instead there's a reduction in the amount of payroll taxes paid by employees (working out to more money in worker pockets and thus more money circulating in the economy, generating more demand and more jobs).

Klein is not an overly optimistic person in Washington, and he tends to be fairly accurate in
his reporting. Anyone out there looking for bipartisanship in Washington ought to be feeling pretty happy, and in general, I think a lot of us should be breathing a huge sigh of relief. For many people in the US, this could have been much, much worse.

ETA:

This is also excellent:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/12/how_the_white_house_cut_the_de.html

I find myself in an odd position. I really wanted Clinton to win the primary (and obviously the general), altho obviously I voted for Obama in the general. Part of my rationale was that I didn't really think Obama would fight, and I didn't think he'd recognize just how hard it was going to be to deal with Republicans in Washington. I figured him for a deal maker, and a centrist, and I expected him to get completely screwed. In practice, he's been unbelievably adept at getting stuff accomplished, and while his positioning in public is consistently centrist, the actual legislation and programs happening are far better for my set of ideals than I would have anticipated. Simultaneously, a lot of people that I perceived as wrong in how they understood Obama during the campaign have become really disillusioned with him as President. I thought they were expecting too much (and I think I was right about that still) -- but they also got way more than I expected them to.

I think that anyone who is particularly concerned about how the base feels about a President immediately _after_ a midterm election is sort of missing the point about how the political cycle in this country works, especially when run through any kind of reasonable filter for high-information/low-information voting patterns. It'll be interesting to watch us run through this tax debate again in the context of a presidential election. That's a fight that everyone seems to really want to have, at a time that everyone wants to have it. Could be fun. :-)
walkitout: (Default)
I had a long conversation today with one of my brokers. It turns out we actually agree on some things that are believed to be wildly controversial (means testing on social security benefits, removing the income cap on contributions to social security), that heartens me about the possibility of making sure important safety net programs are preserved to be around for future generations.

But along the way, we went down a little rat hole about whether or not people making $250,000 a year can be considered rich. One of T.'s arguments was that people who make that amount of money, but who live in an expensive place -- like, say, New York -- can't be considered to be rich because their cost of living is so high.

Let's think about that with a little bit of readily accessible data.

I pulled this out of a note in a wikipedia entry about New York City, subhead Demographics.

http://www.fiscalpolicy.org/SamRoberts4Sep05.htm

That's someone's copy of a New York Times article from September 4, 2005, titled "In Manhattan, Poor Make 2 cents for Each Dollar to the Rich".

Here are the relevant bits of information:

"The lowest-income census tract in the city is a triangular patch of East Harlem east of First Avenue and north of East 119th Street, where, despite a hint of gentrification in a renovated brownstone or two, the neighborhood is dominated by the mammoth though generally well-tended public housing project called the Wagner Houses. The median household income there is $9,320, most of the residents are black or Hispanic and do not have high school degrees, 56 percent live below the poverty level and about one in 10 are foreign born."

and

"Manhattan's highest-income census tract is a six-square-block rectangle bounded by Fifth and Park Avenues and East 56th and 59th Streets. The median household income in this mostly commercial section of East Midtown is $188,697 (average family income is $875,267); none of the residents identified themselves as black; nearly one-third have advanced degrees and more than one in three are foreign born. Even there, though, the poverty rate is 16 percent."

I think that if you make substantially (honestly? Don't _you_ think that over $60,000 is substantially?) more than the median income in the _richest_ census tract in New York City (particularly since we may well be comparing apples to oranges, in that median income in these statistics may or may not be the same as AGI, which is what the $250K thing is all about), you might qualify as rich. Don't you?

Sure. _Average_ family income in that tract is much, much, much higher, because even in that richest census tract, there are a small number of families who have fantastically more money than the rest of the rich people. But that doesn't change things. If you've got -- call it 30% more money -- than half of the other families in the _richest census tract in NYC_, you are probably rich.

I am _so_ going to write that Memo to Rich People.

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