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Our book club will be discussing this in a few hours, and I just finished reading it. It’s great! I really and truly enjoyed it. The author is a goof, but a dad-joke kind of goof. He’s never disrespectful in a way that gives me pause. His attention to land use, economics, what he calls the Death Industrial Context, racial segregation, and Julia Morgan is absolutely fantastic in every way. I had understood The Lawn to be a response to golf courses, but this book sold me on an alternative interpretation. I’d known a lot about Olmstead, but I learned more here.

I have no idea if he’s got any other books out there, but if he does, I’ll at least consider reading them, because this was unexpectedly wonderful.

I’m looking forward to our conversation this evening.
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I got up earlier than usual because A. had her annual today. It went fine. The usual concerns about is she getting enough calcium, a mild concern about the vitamin K supplement we give her because of occasional nose bleeds and the picky eating means probably not enough vitamin k from veggies. I checked; the supplement is in mcg and the recommended max is in mg, so we are for sure in the green. No worries. One shot, for meningitis. We even got her to school in time!

I walked with M.

I finished reading Susan Orlean’s The Orchid Thief for book group, which is now delayed until next week. Orlean is usually fun, and this is no exception. I have no idea why I never read it before, but it is absolutely hilarious to think of Laroche, who is really only a few years older than me, and given the time frame of the book and Laroche’s get rich quick obsession and obsessions in general and what was going on in my life in those years, the whole thing just struck me as absolutely hilarious. But then again, doesn’t everything about Florida feel hilarious, once you’ve got a little distance from it. In the moment, not hilarious at all, mostly infuriating.

I do find it a little astonishing that I’m in Florida twice a year, for a week or more at a time, almost every year and that’s been true for over a decade now. Not how I really expected my life to go, but it’s nice to get more historical background and more of a sense of place for more of the state. My perspective on Florida has been very Central Florida centric (Disney, obviously, but also The Villages), with little appendages for Cocoa Beach and Sarasota. My interest in doing anything else in Florida is not non-existent, but nearly every other vacation idea has more appeal. Still, it’s nice to read about. It’s also nice to get some breadth and depth on people and orchids (and bromeliads and ferns and and and), because that’s popped up in JAK a bunch, and much less commonly in people I’ve encountered in my life and it’s always a little confusing, the intensity that people have about certain plants, and that they expect me to somehow share it? Or be impressed by it? It’s good to have some detailed background.

I made apple crips. Yummy.

I’m going to try to go to bed early, because I have a bunch of driving to do tomorrow and I’m already tired.

ETA:

I also read Casey Blair’s Consider the Dust, which is probably a novella? It’s a ton of fun, the story of friends or rivals or who really knows, and what happens when they reunite after more than a year apart and a whole lot of changes and growing up and yet somehow no changes at all. It has a great sense of humor, and wonderful fight scenes and the incisive political commentary isn’t too heavy handed. Loved it!
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I bought this book in e-form, altho I first saw it at a local bookstore (you can be mad about this, and I will also note that I bought several other books at the bookstore). I was really excited to read it — and other books I bought around the same time — but the lockdowns changed my focus and I am only recently returning to this book. I tried several times to read it, but it was incredibly difficult in 2020 and 2021 and even into 2022 to read about people traveling to meet extended family they learned about through genealogy.

The sections on using genetic genealogy to identify victims of crimes and the people who left DNA at a crime scene are really interesting, because Copeland captures some of who was talking about the ethics of this _before_ the GSK moved this into wider awareness, and what they were saying and the responses they got, and also how rapidly people’s reactions moved in the wake of GSK and related cold cases.

I remember working at a startup in the 90s, and the founder/CEO of the company sifting through the kinds of people to hire at an executive level as we grew rapidly. One of the possible positions was “Strategist”, or for one of the other executives to take on “Strategy” as part of their role. He concluded that it did not make sense to hire for this position or to assign this role to anyone but himself at that point in time, and subsequent events have absolutely confirmed that this decision was correct. While strategy and ethics are extremely different activities / topics / lenses, they _do_ overlap, and they share the important characteristic of imagining alternative worlds/futures and making value judgments about which one to steer towards (or away from). Since watching him go through this process and listening to how he described the tradeoffs and why he decided what he did, I have thought over the years many times about how groups of people make this decision. With genetic genealogy and crime, most of the people thinking about it before it became a broad topic were very concerned about privacy and individual control of their genetic information and the potential for large organizations (corporate or governmental) to abuse this information in pursuit of Bad Goals. Once genetic genealogy and crime became a broad topic, a few people continued to think about it in these terms. The attraction of identifying a violent criminal, or the victim of a violent crime, washed away concerns about whether or not one’s second cousin’s DNA could be used to identify oneself or vice versa. However, the solution to the pressures of these disparate positions was resolved in at least one important service to move all existing accounts to “opt out” of being included in searches and to otherwise allow these types of searches on everyone who “opted in”. At least the initial impact was to make it a bit more difficult to do that kind of search (altho not _that_ much more difficult, as warrants started to be produced to access that information).

The Jim Collins / Philip Benson babies-switched-at-birth story winds through the book, providing a frame for thinking about the changes over time in genetic testing and the size of the accessible databases. Because one of the families is Ashkenazi, the family that got the Ashkenazi baby had a very difficult time navigating cousin matches to track down the close family of their person because of endogamy. It’s amazing that Copeland used this story to show how the matching algorithms and databases evolved over time so that the basically impossible search of the beginning of the Collins/Benson search undertaken by Alice was solved shortly before that basically impossible search would become trivially easy. Technology!

Finally, as I noted in a post last night, Benson’s first wife was an Abolofia. I _said_ I wasn’t going to try to figure out how we were related, but I lied. It only took about five minutes to figure out the relationship. My dad’s first cousin married an Abolofia. His father’s niece — so, I guess her cousin by marriage — was Benson’s first wife. Every Single Time I work on this surname, the serendipity is _delightful_.

Fun book, really happy I finally read it. I can’t say I wish I’d read it sooner, because I tried and obviously, I just wasn’t ready. I bought some other books at the same time that I haven’t read so maybe one of those will be next.
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I read this as a paper book, because it is not available in kindle form. It is available in audiobook form. Go figure.

It’s got two main sections: Ideas and Gurus. Just like the label says.

I bought it about 8 years ago (end of april 2015) and it has been sitting around ever since, _occasionally_ used as a reference and occasionally leafed through. It survived every book purge until this one, when I finally decided it was Read It Or Get Rid of It. Having read it, I will now get rid of it.

The goal in buying it was to raise my background familiarity with the ideas and people referred to in articles in the business press. I obviously could always just look them up in wikipedia, but every time I do that, I wind up spending time over on wikipedia and never finishing the article I was in the middle of. Think of this as an exercise in “cultural literacy” of the business journalism category.

It’s also branded The Economist, with predictable impact. It’s somewhat dated, and is written by a Brit, so there’s a certain amount of that going on as well.

I’m not sure what else to say about it? Oh, I guess one observation. I only recently realized that a large minority (perhaps a plurality) of philosophy majors intend and/or do become clergy. I was a little surprised by the quantity of people in this book whose degree was in psychology, social psychology, or sociology. However, I’m starting to think I really should have seen that coming. I mean, if you are in business, you really fucking do have to understand how people, collectively and individually, think, feel and do, especially when it comes to purchasing goods and services.
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I bought this in 2015, in paperback. It’s a really odd one, because you can get an audiobook version of it (audible) but it does not appear to be available in kindle format. It’s really more a reference book than anything else, _but it is a reference book that is quite readable_, which is why I bought it. I wanted to absorb at a surface level the 2 page summaries of what it is about, because I figured it would help me reading business news more quickly without constantly having to look up terms.

Anyway. It’s 8 years later, and I’ve absorbed a lot of it on my own in the meantime, but I’m once again trying to read books before getting rid of them, so here we are.

First up! Enterprise Resource Planning. The description makes it very clear that I have friends who have engaged in trying to do proto-ERP stuff and who have used SAP (how did I not know that SAP/Oracle products were basically doing ERP? That’s what this book is designed to fix in my brain tho, so, yay! Late is better than never). Also! K.’s data dictionary!

That’s kinda boring, tho. Much more interesting is Rosabeth Moss Kanter.

Best of all so far — I’m in the middle of the E’s — is BCG’s “The Experience Curve”. I’ve been trying to explain this to people! Of course, I’d never heard of it before. Basically, everyone has changed jobs, so everyone is new at their job, so everyone is slow and making mistakes and doesn’t know how to do stuff. Thus, everything is much more expensive (because slow and mistakes) which is contributing to inflation. Once everyone settles in and gets used to their jobs (gains experience) they will get faster and make fewer mistakes and they will know how to do stuff and they will be more productive and that process will be deflationary. It’s probably not worth digging further into BCG’s development of the idea, because it has a bunch of problems in the way they developed it. But I have a term I can throw around! Yay!

I don’t really recommend the book, because it is a bit out of date and it is branded The Economist, and so forth, but it is definitely serving the purpose I bought it for, albeit 8 years later.
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Don’t even bother reading this. Just go read the book.

Recently, and probably _directly_ attributable to the increased sunshine and general Mad Spring Energy, I cleared a bunch of stuff off my kindle, put a bunch of stuff on my kindle and started reading through the backlog. Because Reasons, I started with Samples. I liveblogged some of this. This book was _so good_ right from the beginning, that I bought the book and continued reading it. There was some drama in my life that temporarily derailed me, and the process of getting back on track involved finding some soothing decluttering books to read, but I _got back to it_, which tells you everything about how awesome this book is. I am very prone to not finishing books in a timely fashion, even when they are good, because Life.

What did I love (yes, all of it, sure, but some details to tempt you to read a book that is All Difficult Material):

Depictions of:
Non-verbals of people he is listening to
His own emotions in response to what he is seeing, learning
His own struggles with expressing (very reassuring when he described his struggles with French while in Senegal)
His own family’s experience of the Jim Crow era, and how he did not know about it until he asked as part of producing this book
The relationships between the various people he talks to over the course of the book
The importance of teacher/teacher, student/teacher relationships (not in a creepy way! In a developing ideas together way)
His respect for, his concern for, his _care_ for children — he takes them and their concerns and their emotions seriously, and not just children _now_, but children _ever_, and not just children who are the victims explicitly, but also how children are taught to hate and oppress

There was nothing about this book that I did not love.

Also, once upon a time I loved going to museums. I lost that love a while back, and it has been sputtering back to life slowly. I absolutely have plans to go to Whitney Plantation because of reading this book. And I want to go back to the National Museum of African American History and Culture. Soon.
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This is _such_ a great book. Go read it.

Anyway.

On Goree Island, in Senegal, the author is talking to Hasan who is a teacher at a boarding school there.

“Hasan said it is important that the country develop a curriculum so students can develop a holistic understanding of what slavery and colonialism did to their country and their continent. This, he said, is essential because knowing their history helps them to more effectively identify the lies the world tells about Africa. It equips students with the intellectual and historical tool kit, so they won’t accept and internalize the idea that Africa has no history, that Africa’s poverty is its own fault, that Africa would be better off if it were under European control. “If they know that the arguments are false,” he said, “they will know that all the rest also is false.””

“I was struck by the parallels between how Ibrahima Seck, the director of research at the Whitney Plantation, spoke about the role of history and how Hasan was speaking about it now. They had similar conceptions as to how teaching history, a full history, would shape how students navigated the world. They were acutely aware that this knowledge gave their students new eyes, a new sense of freedom and understanding — the ability to know the lie, so they could not be lied to anymore. I told Hasan that was he was telling me made me think of my trip to the Whitney Plantation in Louisiana, and his eyes got wide. He asked me if I knew Ibrahima Seck.”

“I told him I had indeed met Seck, and that I had spoken to him when I went there in those months before coming to Goree.”

“Hasan smiled. That’s my best friend, he told me. He and Seck used to teach together at a high school in Dakar.”

History as an industry is documentarian — it’s about what is documented, what is written down. Industries can change, tho. And when they do, the incumbents in the industry resist, except for a few, who are the ones who innovate, who reform, who make the new form of the industry. A document based approach to history makes it almost impossible for us to “do” history in the absence or paucity of documents, and also when we come to understand that the primary documents are demonstrably false. Knowing something is not true does not always tell us what _is_ true. We’re starting to see the past understood through lenses of genetics and language and artifact. We are also starting to understand that what is written down contemporaneously may not be as accurate or helpful in understanding the past as what is passed down as lore and heard from a member of a group in the present. The approaches we must take when documents do not exist are starting to illuminate the many problems with history being documentarian as an industry.

Reading Clint Smith’s _How the Word is Passed_ is a delight for so very many reasons: the evocative detail of the setting in which his conversations take place, his feelings, the emotional tone of the people he listens to, the clothing people are wearing. It is also a delight because he is sorting through a universe of threads of how to think about, talk about, write about, teach about and live with the presence of the past in our present day.

Also, in this particular case, reading about Smith meeting Ibrahima Seck and Hasan months apart, and hearing how their thoughts run together across time and distance, forcefully reminded me of the importance of talking together and teaching together. Our ideas develop and clarify and ripple out into the world as a result of our conversations and our work together communicating our ideas.

Never question the value of figuring out something with your best friend. It may never be _as_ amazing as this friendship, but it’s absolutely worth the effort.

ETA:

Another long quote, from the end:

“I have come to realize that those conversations with my students [as a high school English teacher in Prince George’s County, Maryland], now a decade ago, about how we might begin to understand our lives in relation to the world around us were some of the earliest sparks of this book. I tried to write the sort of book that I would have wanted to teach them. I hope I made them proud.”

Indeed. How lucky we are that he wrote this book. Really, go read it. It is amazing.
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I decided recently to see what 2023 had to offer in the way of decluttering advice. I do this … at intervals. I find reading decluttering books (and related things like personal organization, time management, etc.) a calming activity and there are usually one or two tips or tricks or new perspectives in any given book, even if it has a lot of problems. Sometimes, a book is _really good_ even if I don’t wind up adopting much of anything from the book.

I’m not the target audience of these books. I’m really not. I’m not the person who tons of clutter including books about clutter. I don’t expect these books to be validating to me, or anything like that. I expect them to be aimed at people who are quite different from me, and to validate how that person experiences life, the world around them, etc., and part of what I get out of reading these books more recently is a deeper understanding of the target audience of these books (at least, in my imagination that is what is happening!).

2023’s take on decluttering is making explicit a theme of decluttering books that has been present more or less as long as this genre of self-help book has existed: mental health support and ways to feel better about oneself and to relate better to oneself, one’s loved ones, one’s stuff, etc. This is wonderful! I could not be more enthused (<— totally serious).

One of my longest standing criticisms of books which aim to help predominantly women feel better about their struggles with small children, cooking, cleaning, household maintenance, etc., is of the frame Self Care as Put Your Own Mask On First, or as, “You can’t take care of other people unless you take care of yourself first.” Obviously, I _want_ people to take care of themselves. Also, I want people to take care of themselves PERIOD. NOT so they can go on to do stuff for other people. It’s _fine_ if they also care for others. Or whatever. Framing it in this _particular_ way feeds in a little too much to the You Are Only Worthy to the Extent You Serve Others thing that results in so many predominantly women self-sacrificing to the point of self-destruction. This book does this in the context of advocating for use of disposable plates, prepasted disposable toothbrushes, etc. I am _NOT_ opposed to the use of these products and I am NOT here to judge anyone who makes use of them (also kinda wishing I’d known about the disposable toothbrushes a while ago!). The author is loving, caring, compassionate, delightful, etc. and really trying hard to get through to people who are paralyzed completely by the need to eat or brush teeth or whatever and to do so in a perfectionistic way with respect to some environmentalist / recycling / wtf thing. The frame arises in this context. It is _probably_ a helpful frame in this context _for the target audience_. I’m not the target audience. This frame gives me hives. IT IS FINE TO USE DISPOSABLE. You don’t need to justify it. You do you. If someone is judging, they should fucking shut up and take out the trash or clean the toilets or do something else equally helpful. Play with the older kid. Take the baby out in a stroller for a walk. Whatever.

I like the author’s insistence that if the thing is worth doing, it is worth doing partially. It is worth doing in a half-assed way. I LOVE that the author’s response to items on the list that she never got around to were _removed from the list_. This is _great stuff_. It is such a powerful depiction of Making Excellent Choices down in the weeds of parenting / home maintenance / wtf that it is actually _difficult_ for me to call to mind anyone who has ever done it better.

It’s clear that the target audience has a lot of beliefs and standards with respect to keeping house. I LOVE that the author moves the target audience firmly in the direction of wash everything together on cold. And also, the introductory section describing the author’s perspectives on what those beliefs and standards might be was aggravating to read. Seriously, as parents now, I hope we all teach our kids to do everything early and badly, and then never go back to “finish the job”, because functionally, it is finished. It is Good Enough.

Davis uses the 9 square from Lean. I’m on the fence about this one. On the one hand, using familiar things from a work context, such as this one, or the idea of opening and closing routines, can help move keeping house from an amorphous, endless series of never done tasks, all of the highest priority (someone we love Cares so we MUST do it for THEM because we LOVE them!) to — or at least in the direction of — meh, it’s good enough. On the other hand, I generally disapprove of sitting down and making lists and applying priority ordering and so forth to the list. I’d much rather people made a list and then started committing to NEVER DOING most of the list. If you can get most of the things off the list, and then do one or two of whatever is left in an 80/20 sort of way (put in 20% of the effort and get 80% of the benefit), in general, things will get to Good Enough and mostly stay in the general neighborhood of Good Enough.

Finally, there were personal hygiene related sections that I had very mixed feelings about. I think this author did a nice job of trying to talk the target audience off the ledge, and given the current excess going on in Shower Routines and Face Care, it’s a helluva ledge. I did very much appreciate that the author brought in someone to provide some commentary on Black hair to supplement the fairly detailed Caucasian hair recovery from being in bed for weeks. It would have been nice to have someone in to advocate for shower once a week, no products at all approach. I mean, it works. It’s great. It solves so many problems. And so few people seem to realize that it actually _can_ work. Given how many routines and products _don’t_ work for people, it seems unfair to not include the Nothing (but water, and that not too often) option.
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These are _NOT NOT NOT NOT NOT_ book reviews! See, this is tagged not a book review. And the subject line says “samples”. OK? These are notes to me so that I know I went to some effort to decide whether or not to buy and read the thing, and if you think that I’m wrong and would enjoy the book, I’d love to hear _why_ you loved it in some detail. If you are the author and feel I have been unfair to you personally and would like to share your opinion of that with me, just know, it probably won’t go well for either of us.

I’ve tried reading Virginia Sole-Smith’s _The Eating Instinct_ sample several times; I apparently made it 53% of the way through (the sample!) and bailed out. I tried again, and almost immediately figured out what the problem was.

You cannot have a human developmental milestone that requires using a spoon. You can’t. That’s totally cultural. D’oh. Stop that. I used to be so much quicker at spotting nonsense like that when I was actively reading parenting literature, but at least it’s coming back slowly.

I’m mostly posting this so I don’t screw up and order it in the future.

Moving on.

_Food Foolish_ by Mandyck and Schultz

I read the sample before but totally forgot the contents. I reread it and was utterly unimpressed. Said basically nothing. Wasting food is a climate problem. Hunger has been replaced with “bad calories”. We need a new revolution in food and it is … better storage? I mean, maybe. I don’t know. One of the reviews notes that all the stuff about cold storage is a bit sus because one of the authors is highly connected to Carrier. Seems plausible. Not compelling enough to bother, but if someone I trust tells me it is absolutely worth it, I’m prepared to revisit.

_Waste-Free Kitchen Handbook_, Dana Gunders

43% of this sample occurs before where you land if you start at the “Beginning”. Wow. Just … wow.

OK, “A woman from Hong Kong once told me that when she was a child, her aunts and uncles would inspect her bowl and tell her that each morsel of rice she had left would turn into a mole on the face of her future husband! Can you imagine if we thought that way about food in our own lives?”

Let’s go down the list.

What, you think we should be programming girls to grow up to marry men? That’s heterocentric. Bad. Don’t do that.

What, you think we should be shaming people into eating when they are no longer hungry? Pretty sure we’ve been working really hard to _stop that_. Bad. Don’t do that.

Also! Interesting! When we were busy telling kids to eat the peas or whatever because people in China were starving, people in China had their own version of that to tell the kiddos. I expected that, but getting the deets is pretty cool! But the contextualization and framing is so horrifying, I think I could have maintained that ignorance for a while yet.

“There are only two things that are happening with these extra calories. Either we’re eating them or we’re throwing them out, presenting a choice between your waist and your waste. I’ll offer some shortcuts to help you cook the right amounts, so you don’t wind up with unnecessarily huge portions or more leftovers than you’d like.”

That’s … disturbing in some ways, but otherwise getting into the right spirit.

Unfortunately, the core advice conveyed is:

“The basic advice is easy to grasp and much, much harder to practice: Plan your meals, make a shopping list from that plan, and stick to the list — and then stick to the plan.”

Yeah. OK. That is never going to happen. I’ve been polling people about how they feed themselves for decades. I _have_ met a few people who say they meal plan. I have! Really!

Heh heh heh.

From _watching_ people in action over the years, the Correct Strategy is to have a really good repertoire for cooking what you currently have in the house. Any advice that isn’t focused on how to do that is pointless. The author is focused on how to stick to the list, but anyone who has shopped ever knows that if you plan to make a specific set of meals and you generate a list of what you need to make those meals, once you have bought the items and prepared the meals, there will be a lot of bits and bobs left over from the amounts that were the minimum required (or the amount you expected to use but then did not), and now what do you do.

She _does_ mostly recognize this, by having “2. Check the refrigerator” as an item on her plan. In item 6, “Unfortunately, the ingredients we need don’t always come in the portions we need them in.” is recognized.

Honestly, you’d be better off reading one of the cooking without recipes type cookbooks. Her advice isn’t any better than that from a waste-avoidance perspective and the cooking strategies are better in the other cookbooks. She only plans 3 meals a week cooked at home anyway.

Again, if you’ve read (most of) the book, and think it gets much, much better, let me know; otherwise, I’m done.

_Behemoth_, Robin Gaster

Really long sample, but does not appear to be a really long book. Not sure what’s going on here? This is weird tho!

“Twenty-five years ago, Jeff Bezos, Marianne Bezos, and a handful of staff were shipping books out of the Bezos garage.”

So, working backwards. Where’s the apostrophe to indicate possessive on Bezos’ garage? Or Bezos’s garage, depending on which you prefer? Too finicky? How about, who the hell is Marianne. I’m assuming he meant Mackenzie? Presumably? What a _strange_ error!

“And Amazon is far from done with books: its self-publishing platform is a direct attack on the traditional business model for publishers.” Tell me whose team you are on while telling me whose team you are on.

This is _so odd_. “As Shel Kaphen (sic) (Amazon’s first CTO) said, the choice of books “was totally based on the property of books as a product.”2

I’m not totally certain how to order this. First, Shel’s last named is spelled Kaphan. I’m not speculating about this. I went over to FB and checked him in my friends list. Second, Bezos _could_ have picked CDs for the exact same product qualities as books. He didn’t. Bezos picked books because of the nature of the supply and distribution universe. With CDs, it was possible — and they actually did — engage in trust-like behavior to screw retailers and customers. It’s much, much harder to do that with books, and when it was eventually attempted by Apple and the Big N, they were caught relatively quickly.

The 2 refers to a New Yorker piece by George Packer from 2014 called “Cheap Words”. In it, Packer spells Shel’s last name correctly. The error is novel to Gaster.

Also! Packer describes a loony-tunes conversation that Roger Doeren of Rainy Day Books claims to have had with Bezos at the Formerly Known as the ABA show in 1995.

““ Approaching Bezos, he asked, “Where is Earth’s biggest bookstore?”

“Cyberspace,” Bezos replied.

“We started a Web site last year. Who are your suppliers?”

“Ingram, and Baker & Taylor.”

“Ours, too. What’s your database?”

“ ‘Books in Print.’ ””

Somebody was lying here. Maybe everybody was lying here.

Gaster again: “Through just two distributors, Amazon got universal access to all books in print in the US.” *sigh* NO NEVER TRUE.

Not even all trade books. I mean, come on.

“Information was also standardized. Books in Print maintained a listing and ID system which was already available electronically and used everywhere.”

NO NOT TRUE AT ALL. I mean, you could license use of it at various price points and capabilities, but they won’t a metric fuck ton of money, and Bezos didn’t wanna pay it so he did _not_ and over time, the catalog we developed was so good that a lot of libraries (personal communication) ditched _their_ payments to Bowker’s in favor of using the Amazon catalog. Because ours was much better. “In the end, Amazon chose to use a lower quality version of the catalog from Baker&Tylor (sic) precisely because it included a lot of out of print books.”

NO NO NO

First, Taylor, not Tylor. More relevantly, we bought a database from the Library of Congress to get the out of print books. Gaster had some idiot for a source or just made random shit up. This is all _wrong_. _I_ _know_.

OK, I took a break to have a phone call with a friend. It’s supposed to be a weekly phone call, but we’ve missed … like, a month. It was great catching up. Now that I am back here, I have no idea why I wasted so much fucking time and energy on this.

You cannot trust anything in this book. He introduces errors in names that are not present in his sources. He asserts wrong shit everywhere. I have no idea how his analysis is, but how can you build decent analysis on top of a structure that riddled with wrongness? No. I haven’t finished the sample and I’m not going to. Which is a pity, because I wanted to read about logistics at Amazon, but I can’t trust this so I won’t put that garbage inside my head.
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Author not named here, because I’ve got some real concerns about her mental health and I just don’t need to feel guilty about tipping her over the edge or other outcomes that might be personally worse for me. I mean, the road rage description. If you know the author, please don’t show this to the author.

I loved _The Worry Trick_. I firmly believe that negative emotions are important motivators to get us to do difficult things. So I really expected this book to align with those ideas and expand upon them in ways that would be interesting and useful. This book did not do that. The author defined anxiety as a body centered set of feelings, and worry as motivated planning. This erases all the beautiful, expansive, choice enhancing territory of _The Worry Trick_. Further, the author firmly believes that anxiety is Good. Like, not just occasionally we might need it to get us over a hump, but Good like, Live Your Life This Way. It’s like a Meritocratic version of Saved by Works. If you think about the future, and you feel it, you will collect information, plan and take difficult actions and have a good (cringe) outcome. If you _don’t_ have anxiety, you won’t do those things, bad things will happen to you and it will be your fault. She’s explicit about one side of this coin; the other side of the coin is implied fiercely, at least in the first half-ish of the book. I have no idea where she goes after the first half-ish because I DNFed it.

I specifically DNF’d this book NOT because of its morally reprehensible thesis, but rather because of citational dishonesty (noted in a liveblog earlier in this blog) and ridiculous illustrative examples (the bear encounter, and the idea that a short story writer could ever experience proportional improvement in the story by the hour). Also, it became impossible to believe that maybe she didn’t _really_ mean it about the basic thesis.

If you have anxiety, panic attacks, intrusive worries, etc., I strongly encourage you to read _The Worry Trick_. And also, to find a friend, peer or pastoral counselor, or therapist to help you work through why you are having this chronic pain, and help you evolve how you live your life to one that is less anxious and more rewarding. Definitely skip this book, tho.
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I buy books about anxiety, similar to how I buy books about personal organization, time management, decluttering, cooking, etc. I don’t need what is in these books (altho I’m constantly looking for more tips and tricks in all of these areas), and these books are _generally_ aimed at an audience that is _excruciatingly_ Not Me in quite horrifying detail, which is jarring, and I want to complain about, but feel compelled to not do too loudly in public because I mean, they are not aimed at me after all. I could just walk away.

You might wonder, but then _why_ would you buy books about anxiety? Well, I’m _surrounded_ by people with anxiety, who, for mysterious reasons find it comforting to be around me (net — on a moment to moment basis, it can be extremely harrowing to be anywhere near me). I would _like_ to better understand what is going on, so, you know, I could either be more or less helpful, depending on whether I wanted the person to feel better or, you know, just go away from me permanently. As the case may be.

In any event, here I am with another book about anxiety, that includes a bunch of somewhat science-y stuff about the brain that, as always, is not especially helpful or even accurate but, importantly, just isn’t all that relevant or persuasive. That’s fine. I don’t need to fact check it in detail because it is not the underpinning of any of the rhetoric. Just skip right over all that. Nothing to see here. Also, the random historical detail, should be ignored. Also, her description of road-raging? Let’s just pass on by there, as well.

And the stuff about emotion-faces?

Pretending that didn’t happen either.

She does have some interesting detail about public speaking and fear, and whether the speaker focuses on people who are ignoring / hostile / falling asleep or on people who are engaged / smiling / wtf. I’m mostly like, wait, you’re doing public speaking and focusing in on individual people? Seems dangerous! Treat them as a mass. It’ll go so much more easily!

Moving on from there, she describes a study in which participants were asked to do daily for two weeks, “Please try to envision, in the most precise way, four negative events that could reasonably happen to you tomorrow. You can imagine anything, from everyday hassles to very serious events.” Other participants were instructed, “Please try to imagine, in the most precise way, four neutral, routine events that could happen tomorrow, things that you barely notice, such as brushing your teeth, taking a shower, tying your shoelaces, taking a bus, or turning on your computer.”

The negative crowd, no notable mood impact. The neutral crowd, anxiety decreased. The author sums this up: “That’s because anxiety and uncertainty are so closely linked that even thinking about or planning for the most mundane, forgettable, yet predictable future events — things as simple as brushing our teeth — manages our anxious feelings. Devoted list makers — present company included — already know this.”

Well!

OK, I do make the lists. And I did NOT know this. Also, I think the explanatory summary is _insane_. It makes zero sense. There are words. There is grammar. But as an explanation, it is a bomb, and not in a good way. At a minimum — and this just makes it less bad, not actually reasonable, the word “even” should be removed. But it doesn’t explain anything! It’s just another summary!

“Thinking about boring shit reduces anxiety.”

That’s NOT an explanation! An explanation would be, anxiety happens when you sit around imagining bad things that could happen to you. But we’ve _just been told_ that people who were instructed to do that had no impact on their mood. So: imagining bad shit daily on command, no impact. Imagining boring shit daily on command, less anxiety. I think the only possible conclusion here is that _all_ of these people were sitting around imagining bad shit daily on their own, and the study basically crowded out some of the bad shit with the boring stuff. It’s hard to sit around and go, but what if my I burned my hand taking bread out of the oven, if you are busy thinking, tomorrow I will brush my teeth. Roughly, this is like cooking for someone, and stealthily reducing the sodium and increasing the fiber / vegetables. After a couple weeks, they’re like, that’s weird, I lost a couple pounds. I wonder how that happened.

But the explanation is not “Thinking about boring shit reduces anxiety”. The explanation is, “what is going on cognitively generates affect”, with a follow on observation along the lines of, “if your brain spins on boring shit you have more or less total control over, your affect will be pretty calm”.

The next paragraphs glance over at the idea of agency (“we must believe that we have the power, the control, to shape the future…do we believe that we are the narrator of our own story or that we are the helpless victim of fate”) and then shrug and wander off into the weeds.

“When we lose belief in our ability to control fate” really is in this book, I swear. I absolutely agree that when we feel like we cannot affect our circumstances, it’s not great for emotional health. But there are much better ways to word this. But wait! There’s more! Big long paragraph about a bunch of studies: “if we spin the wheel in a certain way or blow on the dice … if we pick our lottery ticket rather than being randomly given one”. _Why are we talking about illusions of control_? If you want to convince anxious people to remember they have agency and focus on what they have agency over, talking about illusions of agency seems … irrelevant? Distracting? Potentially undermines the entire approach? Whyyyyyyy? I mean, honestly, I have been thinking about the Serenity Prayer a lot, because FIL just died, but it’s a good one. I don’t like invoking the godhead for this, but consciously returning one’s focus to what we can influence vs what we can’t influence, and directing our energies to the things we can influence is a _great_ way to live one’s life. And the Serenity Prayer captures that _perfectly_ and far more eloquently than my summary.

And more! Attribution error comes up next! Altho in that incredibly obnoxious way, where psychologists persist in pointing out that people who have had a bunch of good things happen to them over the course of their lives are _happier_ when they assume that’s because of their own efforts and that trend is likely to continue. _As if this observation should make anyone feel good at all._ I mean, that is reified privilege, in a wrapper of, You’ll Be Happier If You Enjoy Your Privilege Blindly. I prefer my attribution error without the reification and wrapper, thank you very much.

“Conversely, when we reject such illusions of control of positive events, we are more likely to be depressed. Depression even turns this healthy attributional style inside out, so that we now believe that positive events are due to external, unstable, and specific causes — which means that good things happen by chance, outside our control, and only sometimes. It’s hard to look forward to such a future.”

Really. That’s _in this book_. If I thought believing picking the lottery ticket number improved my odds vs. whatever the hell that quoted paragraph was were the two choices in life, yeah, I’d be kinda unhappy and anxious, too. JFC. _Get a Better Frame._ You know, like, one which walks up to words like “control”, tosses one’s drink in its face, and then goes over and hangs out with words like “influence” instead.

Honestly, thinking of events as inherently positive or negative is sus on the face anyway. I wasn’t going to say anything, but it’s become impossible to ignore.

A bit further on: “When we’re anxious, even intensely so, we still believe that we can make good things happen in our lives.”

Clearly, this is a person whose response to Stoicism, or Buddhism, or any number of other spiritual paths, could be summarized largely as, “la la la la I can’t hear you”.

“And the most common mental action we take that helps anxiety achieve this is something we’re all familiar with. It’s worry.”

I _really_ disapprove of hope. I’ve got a book here that treats hope and anxiety as inextricably intertwined. It’s a sales pitch for anxiety is good for us, and I interpreted the pitch for this book as being aligned with _my_ belief that negative emotions exist to motivate us to do unpleasant but necessary things. I’m a quarter of the way into the book, and really wondering if I just misunderstood the thesis completely. OTOH, this could all still be the Validate the Reader’s Perspective setup. Either way, I expect I’ll be learning a lot more about how my wild disapproval of hope is a _lot_ more closely connected to my generally not very anxious character than I had previously appreciated.

Here’s hoping this book gets better. (Har de har har) I’m learning things, tho! Maybe not what the book intended me to learn, but I am learning.

ETA:

I’ve scrolled rapidly through an extremely superficial and ridiculous history-of-ideas that involved Dante, Burton’s _Melancholia_, some Freud case studies. I kept going quickly through benzos, opioids, and Xanax. I blasted right through (with eye rolls) sections on safe space and trigger warnings (yes, trigger warnings are not helpful if you then still have to consume the media in question. The entire point of a trigger warning, IMO, is that you can opt out. You know, like, oh, there is strong language in this movie. I will not watch it because I don’t like that kind of language type of thing. Have I _really_ misunderstood trigger warnings that completely? Are they just a “brace yourself — you now have to watch SA”?). I could have picked apart all of that — the fact that I didn’t does NOT mean I endorse any of it. I’m trying to figure out where the hell she is going with this.

Her definition of anxiety is quite body-focused. Her definition of worry is “motivated planning”. This is _very_ different from the definition of worry in _The Worry Trick_. She jumps _right over_ all of the detail I valued so much about _The Worry Trick_, because her response to anxiety, _that she wants to teach people_, is to believe that If She Just Does Everything Correctly It Will Turn Out OK.

Now, _that’s a stupid fucking lie that no one should ever believe much less sell to other people_.

Don’t.

It’s mean.

It _erases_ and _invalidates_ and victim blames and Everything Bad.

That said, when trouble is on the horizon, the helpful thing to do is to prepare to the degree that one can, and that is justified by the scale of resources available and the trouble on the horizon. Since there is never just _one_ trouble, one does have to balance where the resources go — time, money, thought, etc. We do our best to muddle through, and we trust _ourselves_ to live our values of the moment to the best of our ability at the time, and we believe that death will come and that to the degree we have an opportunity at the end to look back over the course of our lives, we will be at peace with the choices we made along the way.

I do love some competence porn, but, come on. If you walk around telling yourself that if you just figure it all out ahead of time and do it right, it’ll be fine, _yeah_ you’re gonna have trouble being at peace. You’ve already planned to blast yourself with some hellacious judgment. It’s not helpful to promise yourself that If You Just then It Will Be Fine. I mean, it might not be fine. Sometimes, it definitely will not be fine. If you are not okay with the _idea_ that sometimes, it definitely will not be fine, that all by itself is a problem worth devoting some time and resources to. This book is very weird, because she actually spends a lot of time on things like human relationships in person making us feel better when deeply distressed, so she definitely has knowledge and a Plan for helping people who are really distressed. I would _expect_ that knowing this would reduce some of the sting of the basic _idea_ that sometimes, no matter how much we plan, there will be ugly.

I’m roughly halfway through, and feeling somewhat discouraged.

ETAYA:

Oh, I wanted to quote some more! Because she’s one of those eye contact people! Bad words.

She’s got a whole paragraph about in person social connection and eye contact and “Unlike almost every other animal” blah blah freaking blah. “Image two people sitting quietly together.” Sure. “They turn,” what, “look into each other’s eyes, and wordlessly understand one another.” You mean burst into laughter? No, no she does not. “From the earliest days of life, children can do the same.” Uhhhh “Babies look into the eyes of their caregivers to seek comfort, learn the back-and-forth reciprocity of play, and observe how their own feelings and actions affect others.”

I need to save this passage and share it with my children when they are asking What the Fuck about neurotypical. I’ll just point to it and say, “Apparently, they all do this. I don’t understand it either.”

Anyway. There’s a minor comment about gaze coordination, but after that, she descends right back into attacks on people staring at screens.

She mentions the word “phubbing”, which I’d never heard of.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phubbing

It was a word invented as an advertising gimmick to advertise for a dictionary. I don’t even know where to go with this.

ETA still more:

“Imagine that you’re taking a walk in the woods and happen upon a bear. You freeze, and as it gets closer”

What? Has this _happened to you_? I mean, my experience with a bear encounter is that the bear is moving either away from me when I see it, or across my path and away from me.

“As it gets closer, your attention narrows to take in every bit of information possible. Does it see me? Is it moving in my direction? Are there any cubs around for it to defend? The danger of the bear is given exponentially greater priority than the aspects of the woods that you were enjoying just moments before… With this narrow scope of attention, you’re more likely to survive. Without it, you’re likely to just get the gist of the threat — not so helpful if you’re trying to avoid a bear mauling.”

Look, if you have actually been taking a walk in the woods and happened upon a bear _and are now reading this book at some time well after that_, there is an extremely slim chance that it _mattered_ that your attention focused down to the bear. But for most of those people, it mattered _more_ that they had bear spray. As a person who had a bear experience much like this (walking along, oh, look bear, hyperfocus on bear), I did absolutely nothing. The bear continued on its way. R. was behind me, and also saw the bear, but he was behind me, so he saw the bear _after_ it had crossed our path. He couldn’t understand why I was so hyperfocused on the bear. So, straight up, nothing about this passage is at all compelling in terms of making a case for narrowed scope of attention being evolutionarily advantageous. I have bear encounter experience. I don’t think the hyperfocus is especially helpful.

I will tell you what that narrowed scope _is_ helpful for. An abusive family member.

I cannot imagine why anyone would still be reading, but the next bit is astonishing.

“Now — no need to imagine here — you’re living through a global pandemic. The facts remain uncertain, but you need to focus on learning as much about the disease as possible — to take in detailed facts, judge their veracity, update information as needed, and make informed decisions. Can I really catch the virus from surfaces? How important is wearing a mask? What’s the evidence that gathering outdoors is safe? The more you learn, the more you give the realistic dangers of the virus attentional priority, while unclear or vague information (which is more likely to be false) fades into the background. This prevents over- or underestimating the threat of the virus and helps you make the best choices possible to stay physically safe and psychologically sound. With this narrow scope of attention, you’re more likely to survive.”

And _this_ is what I meant when I said above that she believe and is teaching people that if you just work really hard to do everything correctly it will turn out okay.

First off: more detailed and more clear information is NOT more likely to be true. For that matter, unclear and vague information is NOT more likely to be false. There was a ton of detail at various points of time about how it spread or did not spread, and whether community spread had happened yet and what kind of cleaning might or might not help and whether it could spread completely asymptomatically or not. And a LOT of that detail was really not accurate. Whether or not you made it through that pandemic safe and sound, physically or psychologically, had a lot more to do with whether or not you could successfully isolate / pod up and still pay your bills, whether you had to access medical care (for any reason) during the initial period of the pandemic and — most of all — how old you were. Also, there were and still are communities spreading all kinds of highly detailed falsehoods. _Sourcing_ would probably be a better thing than “detail”, but honestly, we were still figuring it all out as we went.

The next bit is about musician parents pressing schools hard during the initial return to in-person school for music education to resume. Look, I get that music is important, and more important to some people than to others. And also, this feels very, very, very like the road rage bit earlier in the book.

New section about creativity, discussion of activating moods / emotions (she uses both terms). “These activating emotions are a breed apart from deactivating emotions such as sadness, depression, relaxation, and serenity, because the latter just slow us down”.

I’m out. I may or may not revisit this tomorrow, but for now anyway, I just can’t.” You can’t say “serenity just slows us down”. That’s … a bad frame? Missing the point? Criminally unenlightened?Damning evidence that the person who wrote it is a Lifetime Member of the Cult of Busy-Ness?

Or, maybe, further evidence that the word “just” should not only be removed from sentences during editing phases, but a lot of whatever is going on around it should be reconsidered as well.
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This is so cool. She’s interleaving stories of her life with discussions with Tony Attwood.

But first! I posted this on FB:

““In my teens I would sit outside Cafes on the King’s Road or in Hampstead flicking through the latest Jilly Cooper release, devouring every word. Not just because they were thrilling, fast-paced, and addictive, but because I thought they offered a blueprint for how people behaved. I genuinely believed that if I could just be more like a Jilly Cooper character, I would be a normal person.”

This _feels_ like someone trying to be normal by imitating what they watched in a soap opera, or a Judith Krantz novel or whatever, but I’m not sure I’ve got the right idea here. And honestly, the idea of reading Jilly Cooper novels that I see on Amazon does not … appeal.”

After I went back to reading, there was more about Cooper:

“I genuinely read Jilly Cooper as you would read an instruction manual for a washing machine. I thought I would find all the answers to life within these pages.”

Leaving Cooper behind, Laura James has some interesting things to say about her communication style.

“I’m often surprised when a situation spins out of control. I have begun many relationships with men that I understood to be completely platonic (!!!), later to discover that they read things very differently. I can be intense at the start of a friendship. I love to learn new things, and new people may have knowledge and experiences I haven’t come across before. I get excited about new facts, and that excitement can be contagious.”

OK, my readers who know me are going to go, looking at you walkitout, and I want to be clear, _I absolutely get that this sounds a lot like me_. But I _also_ want to be clear that while she’s got some insight on this happening when writing this book sometime around 2015/6, it sounds suspiciously like maybe she doesn’t have that kind of insight in the moment, and it _also_ doesn’t sound like she’s taken meaningful steps to change her life in a way to keep herself out of trouble. Right? “I’m often surprised when a situation spins out of control” is kind of her telling you that. And _that_ part of it is very not me any more, and hasn’t been for a long time now. I’ll give you some more quotes to show where I think the divergence in our life paths happened:

“My social style is easy, fun, and above all else different. I have learned that men can find this attractive and confusing. I’m a quick communicator. I can’t easily leave a text or email or call unanswered. I perhaps seem more intensely involved in the friendship than I actually am. (New para) This leads to a mismatch in expectations. I think we’re exploring a new friendship, one I naturally imagine will be doomed to failure. He, on the other hand, will often imagine this intensity is the sign of something more.”



“Because I find neurotypical women slightly frightening, most new relationships I form tend to be with men. They are easier to read and more straightforward. They don’t feel slighted by my directness…”

But this is a big mismatch! How can men _simultaneously_ be easier to read AND she keeps being surprised by the misunderstanding she’s having about how they are perceiving her?

Answer: men _are not_ easier for her to read! Probably it just takes longer for her to be frightened by them. (I think she is actually aware of this part of the situation.)

Anyway. I had a friend from rec.arts.books, initials CB, who was local enough to meet up with on occasion. We had delightful conversations, and she described how she was consciously living a woman centered life. (I am also eternally grateful to her for recommending a really awesome dental hygienist; I hadn’t been to the dentist for several years, was terrified to go back, and badly needed to. Best of all, the experience gave me a framework to assess future dentists, so when I moved to NH, I could come up with a solution there eventually as well.) I was kinda skeptical, because I shared James’ pattern at the time. _But I was in my 20s_. It took a while — the first baby steps were basically, I’m friends with someone who has a girlfriend / wife. Go hang out with her instead. But CB _also_ pointed me in the direction of consciously reading books by women, which again, I was kinda skeptical about, because I was a very avid SF/F fan at the time. It took a while, but again, absolutely worth while.

That conscious decision to focus on women friends over men friends whenever possible, and to read books by women rather than books by men whenever possible, _meaningfully_ and _permanently_ changed so much about me that in many ways, my younger self seems at time unrecognizably alien (and, to be completely honest, pretty unlikable). I’m not entirely certain that the author has been through a related process.

[ETA: I kept thinking about CB, so of course I tracked her down online. She’s gotten even more amazing as a photographer over the years. http://www.caitlinburke.com/]

“Would I like to go back to my teenage years, knowing what I know now? God, yes! A million times yes! I would love to do it all again with the knowledge of my autism and the skills I have built up in the intervening years.”

Gah!

“Would I want to experience again the same emotions I did then? I’m not sure. I find emotions — my own and other people’s — scary and overwhelming.”

Yeah, so, we’re pretty different. But also, how do you go _back_ and relive those years _without_ the emotions? I mean, teenagers are balls of overwhelming emotions, neurotypical or otherwise! WTF?
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I took T. to martial arts and Vic’s. He drove both ways. Piano lesson happened and _in person_! Yay!

A. met a couple friends at Westside Creamery; they had planned a surprise birthday thing for her. Very sweet! I dropped her off and R. retrieved her a couple hours later.

T. and MIL went to Papa Razzi and were there for a couple hours have a grand time. They made it back barely in time for T. to change clothes to go to Roche Bros. for his job.

I walked with M.

I finished Misha Fletcher’s _Cooking is Terrible_, which is a fantastic book AND a fantastic cookbook. You should buy it and read it. It’s for everyone. Well, unless you are completely allergic to swears, in which case, maybe not.

I am now reading _Odd Girl Out_ by Laura James. Liveblogging may follow!

On FB, I posted:

“I’m reading _Odd Girl Out_ by Laura James. It is really interesting (I picked it for book group next month, so I’m glad it isn’t sucking), but there are really some moments.

“”You use humor to hide from your problems,” a therapist once said to me before asking me to choose which cushion I would like to play the role of my mother. I laughed, and once I started, I couldn’t stop. Turns out Gestalt therapy was not for me.”

That’s good for both insight, and a chuckle, so, fine. But then the author says this a few pages later.

“I have never quite found that breakthrough point others talk about with therapy. I have never found it painful and have never become emotional.”

I hate to break it to the author, but if you start laughing and cannot stop, that actually counts as “emotional”.”

Here is the author describing a friend she had in her very early teens:

“Even when I briefly had a best friend, Helen, it didn’t work out. She was too needy for me… She expected me to spend all my free time with her and didn’t like it if I saw any of the other girls alone. (New para in book) She thought we should have lunch together every day and walk to and from school together. She expected us to spend Saturday nights together and to sleep over at each other’s house, not leaving until just before bedtime on Sunday evening…(new para in book) She became jealous if I spent time with anyone else and would try to start arguments…She was bright and funny, thought, and we could sit in her bedroom and giggle about nothing for hours…(new para in book) We became close when we were twelve … (new para) By the time we were fourteen, we had more or less gone our separate ways… (new para) The other girls from school were less needy, and although often I felt I didn’t quite fit with them, I never felt consumed in the way I had with Helen, who would frequently storm off in a huff for no obvious reason. I missed her, though, and we became friends again later, although the friendship followed a similar pattern and once again we fell out. My divorce clashed with her wedding, and she felt I was somehow trying to steal her thunder. For years I believed it was all my fault. In hindsight, I can see it was a clash of needs, mine to have space and hers to feel connected.”

Well, from over here, sounds like your best friend maybe had some borderline personality disorder going on. Just sayin’.
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I bought this in paperback, and I suspected at the time it would annoy me but I wasn’t entirely certain what was wrong with it. I attempted to read it a couple times; I finally have read it, and can now articulate my issues with it.

I just want to be clear up front here. Criticizing pundits for making predictions that turn out to be absolutely false in a short time frame is a _great hobby_ and I am _here_ for it. More of this please.

Also, I fucking loathe Nate Silver’s operation (which at least started out doing the above) and I also don’t much care for this book (again, which mostly started out doing the above). (A little digression: one of the things I dislike about their descriptions of super forecasters / advice to people who want to emulate them comes down to do you listen to people you agree with more or people you disagree with. As if that is a simple way to divide up the world. Who are these people hanging out with?)

On the one hand, Silver and Tetlock have very similar issues: they are attempting to do some quantitative assessment of predictions with a view to Better Predictions. As more or less a direct, predictable result of that, they push predictors in the direction of shorter term, clearly defined predictions. They _also_ both tend to move in the direction of closer to when the answer will be Known. Their approaches _do_ improve prediction accuracy! So there’s that. Woot. *confetti*

If you are trying to nail down what is going to happen within, say, the next 2 weeks to 3 months, this is a _really_ worthwhile thing to get good at, and I have no particular reason to believe that the Good Judgment Project’s approach to things is bad. (I don’t care about this time frame.)

On the other hand, they have very similar issues: the process of converting a prediction to something that can be quantified puts some limitations on which predictions can be assessed and which cannot. I applaud their time limits, honestly. Letting people say, but inflation is about to happen, for … ever … is a stupid thing. Putting a stop to that by saying, okay fine, but by this metric over the next quarter is an admirable strategy that will expose people acting in bad faith. Altho expecting that to in turn change anything is a degree of optimism I, personally, do not suffer from.

I will note that just relentlessly mocking perma-inflationistas, permabears, etc. is probably more effective.

Overall, their efforts to create quantifiable predictions, and the strategy of converting the question into more answerable ones, however, is another way to move people away from what they actually want to something they legit do not want or at least do not particularly care about. So, kind of a negative there. If I ask for a cookie, and I get a graham cracker with chocolate frosting on it, and I go, that’s not really a cookie, and you say, Peg Bracken calls it a cookie, I might roll my eyes, eat it and say yeah, sure, it’s tasty, but honestly, we don’t think it’s a cookie.

_Peg Bracken_ didn’t think it was a cookie. When you name something an “Afterthought Cookie”, and embed it in the _I Hate to Cook Cookbook_, I don’t think you honestly believe it is a cookie. You’re here to make people shut up and quit asking for things — you’re not here to give them what they want.

At times, Tetlock and Gardner glance off the question of the questions, but they never systematically engage with it, and that is where most of the problem lies. They come closest when talking about Taleb, but mostly so they can weaken Taleb’s side of the debate (fair — not gonna get in the way of that, honestly).

They also frequently take an overtly abrasive approach to their audience. It feels very, oh, the audience thinks strawman but here is data, so that the actual reader will feel clever for not believing strawman. It’s annoying. It’s a common tactic, but that doesn’t make me like it. This is at its worst in the chapter about the German armed forces. They start by talking about Moltke, in the 19th century. They leap silently over the Great War and the Kaiser, and land squarely in the interwar period. They talk up the Wehrmacht, and then suggest that if the reader is uncomfortable with this, well, let’s just go with a quote:

“Understanding what worked in the Wehrmacht requires engaging in the toughest of all forms of perspective taking: acknowledging that something we despite possess impressive qualities. Forecasters who can’t cope with the dissonance risk making the most serious possible forecasting error in a conflict: underestimating your opponent.”

We called The History Channel the Nazi Channel. I remember board gamer culture including an entire cohort of people who adored Axis and Allies above all other games. Lauding the German War Machine and saying, sure, they’re evil, but they were sooooo good at the war staff is an absolute fucking cliche. It’s being used here to club the reader. I don’t know why they are doing this, but it’s weird. Are there people reading this book who think that one cannot / should not learn from their enemies? Who the hell would that even be? That said, the prowess of the Germans / Nazis has been waaayyyyy oversold. The difference was starkest at the beginning of the war, and was largely an artifact of they intended war, and everyone else was _not_ intending war. Guess who prepared more. Surprise! The ones who prepared more were more prepared. *confetti* You win a prize. Here is the prize. <— that period is your prize.

There are also really oddball moments, like when they talk about the Bay of Pigs and then the Cuban Missile Crisis. I don’t know anyone who defends the Bay of Pigs thing — and they don’t either — but they’re still defending JFK and his administration during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Granted, this was published in 2015. It has not aged well.

I wish more people took seriously what Gorbachev did, and how. Tetlock and Gardner use him as a bit of a punchline in a couple of different places — to mock all the people who utterly failed to predict that he would attain power and what he would do with it and who then turned around and claimed they had predicted the collapse of the USSR all along, and then also because Gorby cashed out at one point. The background reality, of course, is that Gorbachev intentionally misrepresented himself very successfully to the entire Soviet system, got into a position of power, and then used that position to accomplish goals he and Raisa had set for themselves decades earlier. I’m no believer in Great Men, but I _do_ believe that some positions give people quite a lot of power, and that people who attain those positions with previously under-appreciated goals can then use that power in unexpected ways that permanently change the course of history. The failure of Tetlock and Gardner to engage fully with Gorbachev’s personal story is of a piece with their failure to really engage with Shinzo Abe’s character. Individuals in powerful positions can have significant impacts on the broader world, but they are still individuals. When Flack says he shouldn’t be at Davos, on some level, Flack is saying that his own lack of awareness of stuff that one is assumed to be aware of by dint of being at Davos could make putting Flack at Davos a real risk to the larger world. I’m not at all convinced that Tetlock and Gardner heard that ; they heard “humility”. I’m like, whatever dude.

Anyway.

The GJP is still around, so if you have a lot of time on your hands and want to play, let me know what you think. If you would like to participate in the GJP _and you know me other than through reading my posts on this blog_, and that $99 fee is a stopper for you, get in touch with me. I’m tentatively willing to fund participation, to get the opinion of people whose opinion I value. If I don’t know you, well, I don’t know whether I value your opinion, and I’m not going to try to answer that question now.

TL;DR: Should I read Super Forecasting? No.

Executive summary: like a lot of efforts to “science-ify” things that are difficult to “science-ify”, they change making predictions so much that it is not at all clear to me that I have much interest left once they are done with it. I’m sure not interested in their metrics or time frames.

Where I’m coming from: I’ve spent my entire adult life trying to predict the future, and having very interesting, highly rewarding failures. My default time horizon is 30 years. I was unable to find anything in this book to help me with that lifelong project, altho I was able to use it to clarify how I think about things and thus hopefully I will be better able to articulate what I do, how I do it, and why I think it works.

ETA the next day: After a good night’s sleep, I realize that I missed something very obviously weird and wrong about this book. The forecasting questions are more or less all questions that “normal people” have limited understanding of even the nouns (country names, technical criteria about the economy, etc.). The “super forecasters” had an excess of computer programmers / scientists _at least in the examples given in the book_. The methods involved first coming up to speed on what the question meant and then getting enough background to come up with a baseline. Finally, the authors “extremized” the resulting prediction unless the group was very homogenous, on the principle that the participants had varying information / processes and some of that was applicable / relevant / successful in the resulting prediction and some was not and exaggerating the prediction would benefit a successful forecast less than it would harm an average forecast. That last bit is a massaging of the data that I would kinda would like to see a bunch of very wise data scientists weigh in on, so that I can hear the level of contempt / how grudging the acceptance is, to know whether it is just clever, or if it is actively malign.

Anyway. The two takeaways I get from this whole thing are that the intelligence community and corporate forecasters in general are (or at least were, at time of writing) a little too homogenous, and that they do not have the most up-to-date / best-in-class ways of interpreting data. Again — not surprising. If we are taking a bunch of elites who are or might otherwise be lawyers and making them analyze data, we’re going to get lower quality results than if we took a bunch of basically numerate people, trained them in state-of-the-art data analysis, and then turned both groups loose on the same data and questions about that data. Fixing this problem is likely to be tricky, because the communities in question already exist and will tend to self-replicate and there are some unaddressed questions here about who do we trust with sensitive information. I think having access to the secret stuff is probably super useful, useful enough to _almost_ compensate for the homogenity and the low quality of data interpretation.
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This Australian urological surgeon is clearly a better human being than the rest of us, but her voice throughout this book is good-natured, clear and inviting. Her perspective is shaped by her (more than) full time job, late-diagnosed disability which resulted in years of pain, and single-parenthood. Great stuff!

Pillay is unabashedly frugal, and argues in favor of home cooking on monetary, health and taste reasons, in addition to being, she argues, faster than takeaway. Obviously, for that last to be true, it has to be an established pattern. Much of her repertoire is familiar — stirfries, rice dishes, pasta dishes. She also argues in favor of having and using a breadmaker. The baked goodies are distinctively Australian — I had to do some research to even understand what a “slice” might be. Also, jaffle irons! Who knew!

While there are some detailed technique descriptions and ratios are presented throughout, this is exactly what one expects from the more organized end of the genre: a strategy for being creative in the kitchen, using what you have, sourcing consciously, and learning as you go how to best make dishes that you and others in your household will love.

Really a joy to read, and an inspiration. Easy to recommend this one! Also, you’ll learn lots of new-to-us cooking terms and foods!
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I know, it seems like it can’t possibly only have _JUST_ wrapped up Q2, and yet.

Meanwhile, in reading, I am learning a ton! I feel like we need to revisit how we talk about political parties. We act like it is somehow weird, maybe even wrong when a party is made up of a slice of elite looking for fairly technical changes in how the government treats them plus a larger mass of voters who want something very, very different. You know: some of the party is there for the tax cuts, and the rest of the party is there for religious reasons. That kind of thing. But I’m staring at pages about how the tariffs interacted with “bonded warehouses”, and thinking, you know, I don’t think that’s weird. It hadn’t exactly occurred to me to think very hard about what the antebellum non-slaver parties cared about. I _knew_ they didn’t want to get involved in abolition (which is why I call them non-slavers, rather than anti-slavery). I _knew_ that they cared about _something_, but the active group of people that might have been their voters really cared about abolition instead, and more than one party collapsed as a result, until finally the South shot first and that clarified things for a time.

I’m starting to think that what they cared about might have been tariffs? Talk about not covering yourself in glory. No wonder they don’t want to talk about it.

Anyway. If you are a properly left-wing author who un-ironically quotes Marx, and you are talking about the politics of this crowd, really interesting paragraphs happen.

Next up: bonded warehouses being used for internally produced and sold domestic commodities like tobacco, whisky, etc. This makes perfect sense to me. If you are taxing a producer and they have not yet sold it, you can put the producer completely out of business. But there was no way at that point in time to tax at the time the consumer bought it. Letting producers sell their wares until it was fairly close to when they could sell it was a huge relief.

“To sustain the Union forces, Congress imposed a tax on whiskey in 1862 … Distillers pressured politicians for relief, and Congress obliged in 1866, granting warehousemen the right to store whiskey barrels under bond”

“The warehousing system incensed protectionists because they felt it undercut the rationale for tariffs. (These men were not buying that bonded warehouses gave succor to all Americans.) They adduced that, no matter how high tariffs climbed, imports would stream in, harbored in bonded warehouses, and that, consequently, merchants — mainly foreigners, “commercial parasites” — could hedge the political and economic vagaries of the national market. [Me: yeah, she really said national market, not international markets.] Merchants could mitigate an unfriendly tariff schedule by waiting it out, for rates were constantly changing. They could dodge a financial panic by shipping goods back to Europe, “rather than pay the duty on them or incur the risk of not being able to sell them,” as some did in 1857. If their time elapsed (they were granted up to three years of storage), they could withdraw their goods and sell them, capitalizing on the respite from customs duties. [If you can figure out what she means by capitalizing on the respite … please explain in a comment or email to me, because I cannot make any sense out of it. Happy to supply more context if you need it.] The protectionists’ barbs were warranted. [!!!] “The figures themselves” offered “eloquent” proof. In 1881, $9.5 million worth of goods were removed from bonded warehouses for re-export, versus $149 million for import — that is, to be dumped on the market.”

It’s a real puzzler. I mean, the tariffs had a range on them, but they were always high. And like sales tax, tariffs on a broad range of goods are incredibly regressive. Why did we do them? Well, the government needs to have money to operate, and you get the money from the people who have the money in a context where you can monitor it. The less labor-intensive tax collection is, the better it is. So, in the second half of the 19th century, tariffs were it. But that changed in the 20th century, of course.

I’m mostly weirded out by the use of the verb “dump”. That’s got a lot of present-day baggage, and I’m unconvinced that it was used that way in that era, which raises a lot of questions.

Moving on!

Farmers (and temperance advocates) wanting public storage of excess grain, with future value attributions, because that’s what happened with the whisky. Shades of politics around the strategic petroleum reserve today! Obviously, if you let someone put something currently worth 50cents a gallon in a warehouse and give them a receipt for $3 a gallon, its future price after aging when it is taken out for sale and when the duties would be collected, there is going to be abundant opportunities for shenanigans. HOWEVER, Orenstein goes straight to 1943 (yes, not 1843, but 1943) and tells a tale of someone who skipped entirely over the putting it into the warehouse type shenanigans and goes to fake bills. I thought earlier in the book that Orenstein used a poor analogy, when she should have been talking about earlier issues with bills; here it is again!

From Jake the Barber in 1943 to another mention of Salad Oil with the field warehousing scandal in the earlier footnote (see? She can see the relationship. These are not warehousing scandals; these are financial fraud scandals, closer to Bernie Madoff than warehousing fraud.). She uses 1940s and 1960s era scandals to intro this:

“Nonetheless, such transgressions fed a growing anxiety about warehousing”

OK, so, you cannot use a 1940s or 1960s era scandal to explain anxiety about warehousing in the 19th centure. You. Cannot. You have to use examples of the time, of which she supplies exactly none. NONE AT ALL. Entirely nothing. *sigh*

The actual anxiety about warehousing had a lot more to do with the fact that some industrial sectors were able to transfer their tax burden to closer to when they could sell the taxable item, compared to other industrial sectors, which had to bear that tax burden long before they could sell the taxable item. That’s it. That’s the whole story. This is a tax administration issue that was difficult to handle, and improved in a piecemeal, incremental way, and everyone who had not yet gotten their version of the problem solved was upset about it. Also, this is an era in which farmers who had been able to produce grain in the East were no longer able to compete with plains farmers, who were ramping up to change the entire planet with their oceans of grain, and all of that arises not even a tiny bit.

I really want to dig into the weird politics of innovative mill owners in the north aligning (in a super complicated and deeply problematic way) with temperance advocates, suffragists and abolitionists against working men in the North and planters (slavers before the war, and all-but-slavers after) in the South. It’s raging right below the surface of this book, but staying below the surface.

Anyway.

The balance of the anxiety paragraph includes “this unease was directed foremost at bonded warehouses … By the even of World War II, the security of the warehousing system was a source of insecurity. The wariness stemmed not only from the sense that bonded warehouses seemed to entice thieves and to incite invasions of imports. It also suggested that they threatened to expose cracks in the foundations of capitalism. The scariness of the second charge made the refutation of the first all the more pressing. For bonded warehousemen and their friends in government, the soundest response had long been to buttress the buildings themselves.”

Why is this here? She jumps _forward_ to Jake and Tino, which are _financial_ shenanigans, that NO AMOUNT of physical plant changes could possibly fix. Jake and Tino created fraudulent paperwork. They were engaged in a form of financial fraud (creating fraudulent bills). But it is used as a transition to go back to the 19th century, and talk about the physical plant.

Incoherent rhetorical structure. Not sure why it happened, because the next dense, long paragraph is a fucking _gem_ and I mean that with total sincerity. It describes how we got the built environment of ports before containerization. Storage on the waterfront meant less activity in the streets of the rest of the city (also! Less work for teamsters! Cost reduction but also decreases the number of workers, who were scarce in general, and when there was a crash, an idle workforce that could wreak havoc.), and required anyone stealing to go quite a ways before they could fence what they stole. Nice description of the influence of insurance companies in terms of getting people to build in fire resistant ways, and how construction techniques developed for mills spread to docks and warehouses.
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I’m in a weird head space with this book. I was expecting a history of warehouses. The foreword/intro told me to expect foreign trade zones. The first chapter does appear to be a history of warehousing. So I no longer know what to think of any of this.

I read _Oceans of Grain_ recently. It did an amazing job explaining about the ABCD grain brokers, and how during the Civil War, in an effort to actually get grain to supply soldiers, a particularly creative person invented what we now know of as the futures exchange at CBOT. My summary might be somewhat wrong, but not significantly wrong. That book was written by Scott Reynolds Nelson.

Orenstein talks about grain elevators, warehouse receipts, the trade in warehouse receipts (which is old), and how that evolved with the expansion of railroads.

“Here the farm family contributed each sack of grain to a common stock (a quasi stock exchange) and in return received a general warehouse receipt, for a specific share of the common stock rather than a specific lot of grain. The grain was now fungible.”

There are problems here. But we’re going to ignore those, because they are minor.

“The general warehouse receipt was an epochal invention. (Vladimir Lenin once commented, “Grain is the currency of currencies.”) In the late 1860s, thanks to groundbreaking grain elevators in the US heartland, brokers in the pit of the Chicago Board of Trade stopped hawking warehouse receipts and started gambling on their worth. In these inaugural futures markets nothing changed hands: brokers “contemplated elivery” while betting on prices.”

In the footnote, she actually references a _different_ book by Scott Reynolds Nelson.

It’s hard to tell if this is technically wrong or not. Certainly, she has skipped _entirely_ over _why_ the futures markets were invented (see _Oceans of Grain_). Which, why?!?!

The next many sentences are about the importance of the connection between the physical presence in the warehouses (grain elevators) of the physical item being traded, even while the trading was occurring in the pit in the form of paper receipts. And that’s great. That’s actually a really important thing that everyone who thinks they can make a killing in commodities needs to have reiterated to them over and over and over again. Because every fucking time someone gets into that trade without thinking about the physical commodity underpinning their gambling, they run up against storage limits, or accidentally wind up taking delivery of tons of pork bellies or crude oil or whatever. People do need to be reminded of this. Still. In 2022.

But then! We get weird sentencies like this. “All that was solid did not melt into air.” We get an entire fucking long paragraph quoting Oliver Wendell Holmes Sr on the topic of the _stereograph_.

Honestly — a little digression here — you might be wondering about stereographs. They are mentioned in WDW’s “Carousel of Progress”, when dad is bugging junior about getting into his stereographs of “Little Egypt”. But to most of us, a stereograph is a View Master. Why is Orenstein quoting Holmes Sr on the topic of View Masters? I have not a single clue.

Anyway. Here’s the quote:

“”Form is henceforth divorced from matter,” declared Oliver Wendell Holmes Sr. In 1859 as he praised the stereograph, another medium of “universal currency” fabricated in the mid-nineteenth century: “Matter in large masses must always be fixed and dear; form is cheap and transportable.” Quite literally, following Holmes, the immobility of the “matter” locked inside the warehouse enabled the mobility of the “form” of the warehouse receipt. The warehouse receipt was like a photograph of the warehouse interior… and as it bounced from ledger to ledger it materialized the dematerialization of the pit.”

Take a moment. You are not going to successfully absorb that, because _it makes no sense whatsoever_. But it is _abundantly_ clear that this is how Orenstein _literally_ views the world. It’s _all_ about surface and appearance. And for someone who has spent way too much time reading books about bills and exchange of bills and real bills and flying bills and all the shenanigans involved in that, having a warehouse receipt treated like a fucking photograph is goddamn offensive.

WRONG METAPHOR.

Let us continue!

The next long paragraph is about kernels of grain flowing through elevators, and how that is like boxes of Argentine beef being trucked in and out of a foreign trade zone, and Marx talking about passengers at a railway station.

Really. I am not making any of this up.

Fortunately, in the following paragraph, we are back to the actual process.

“Safe passage, in turn, was ensured by those pieces of paper.” OK, not literally — that is synecdoche. “As the AWA well knew, the warehousemen needed to be trustworthy for the warehouse receipt to be bankable.”

The rest of that paragraph is about standardization of warehouse receipts, and working with congress to pass the Warehouse Act of 1916 and a licensing program for warehouses. Look, I freaking _hate_ commoditization of agriculture products. I cut my political teeth on getting a definition of organic codified into law. From _my_ perspective, from the 1990s on, the history of grading of agricultural commodities led to a gamification of farming that strip mined deep soils and destroyed ecosystems. However, I also do recognize that this process of commodification was an important component of ending starvation globally.

Next up: a nice, compact description of “field warehousing”. I’m sure this will be followed with a description of abuse, and then auditing procedures to deal with abuse. However, my daughter is asking for a mug cake, and I just drank a Jack’s Abbey Samoa on an empty stomach so I’ll be back later.

ETA:

The scandal was “The Great Salad Oil Swindle” of 1963.
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“Without a positional notation system, arithmetic is tedious and hard, as schoolchildren learn when teachers force them to multiply or subtract with Roman numerals.”

Oh dear.

OK, first off, addition and subtraction are dead easy with roman numerals. Normalize to additive only. For addition, concatenate and sort. For subtraction, mark off matching ones, and then deal with the remainder in the obvious way.

Multiplication and division are more complicated, but there is a well-defined procedure for multiplication.

https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/1530406/how-to-multiply-roman-numerals

Here’s a bit about division:

https://history.stackexchange.com/questions/41435/how-did-the-romans-do-division

But really, the relevant answer is not how you _write_ the calculations. Writing wasn’t a cheap thing to do then; they used abacus.
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I took T. to martial arts and then Vic’s. Fun! They had in person piano lesson. Awesome!

I am reading _The Kitchen_ by John Ota, since we’re having a remote meeting about Future Kitchen tomorrow. I’m optimistic about neither the book nor the meeting, but since I’ve now pitched two NF books (DNF’d both! For somewhat different reasons), I don’t even feel like I need to finish this thing if it is too obnoxious.

For reference purposes: The Great Demographic Reversal was pitched (DNF) because economists who treat labor in 1972 as the same as labor in 2022 don’t know what the fuck they are talking about and have nothing useful to say. Geopolitical Alpha pitched (DNF) for an October 2022 publication date, a thesis that if you look at “constraints” instead of “preferences” your geopolitical considerations when investing will be materially better, and a specific example of Putin won’t invade whatever. Technical, he’s right. Putin did _not_ (yet, anyway) invade any of the Baltic states. But the reasoning manifestly failed in the Ukraine case. If your idea of a material constraint is, Russia selling oil to Germany means they won’t invade whatever the fuck, well, it wasn’t much of a material constraint now was it.

John Ota so far has wildly misrepresented the Pilgrims and shown himself to be a truly horrifying ally. That was Massachusetts and Virginia kitchens. We’re now on to New Orleans. The kitchens and the visits are interesting, so I’m so far tolerating this book to a greater degree than the others.

ETA:

Things definitely take a turn for the better in the Port Ellice House chapter. Ota tells a little of the story of his Japanese grandfather and imagines himself as a houseboy in the Port Ellice House. This really helps a lot, because in the other chapters, it was so much about being awed by the extreme wealth, which I find super disturbing when it involves enslaved persons.

ETAYA:

Unrelated DNF. Before continuing with the tenement kitchen chapter, I decided to try some fiction. I had a great convo with K. on Friday about whether or not it is possible to write romance novels with protagonists in their 50s. I feel that the genre retains a few too many conventions (a narrow understanding of physical attraction and attractiveness, pair bonding that lasts decades, ets.) that are difficult to square with protagonists in late middle age / young end of old. If all previous relationships were duds, why would this one be any different? If previous relationship was good, what happened to end it and are they realistically functional again yet, or are they permanently traumatized by nursing someone through cancer / losing a loved one abruptly to trauma or massive heart attack? If they _thought_ the previous relationship was good and they were dumped, why do we think their judgment is any better now? Anyway. I figured I’d read some lists of possibilities, and Penny Watson’s “Apples Should Be Red” popped up and looked entertaining … and it turns out I already own it. OK, how’d that happen? My sister apparently read it and liked it sooooo….

Nope. Our putative hero’s first words on stage are: “Frank Bucknell is a fucking retard.” I have zero problem with f bombs. I was also expecting f bombs. I like f bombs.

I don’t like the r word. This is not okay. Also, he smokes. Marlboros. Double extra special not okay.

That was a super fast fail. OTOH, it cost me absolutely no money. Also, looking at the original order I see it also included _Darkness Becomes Her_, by Kelly Keaton, whose books written under the name Kelly Gay I once enjoyed. So maybe I’ll try that next.
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That Frozen song had a lot of wisdom and was deeply hooky. Today in, I really need to Let It Go, Let It Go: books that are so terrible, and I’m mad, because I had such hopes for them.

I’ll get to the specific trigger later, because I’ve been trying to deal with this in specific for a really long time and last night, I finally realized that I need to deal with it on a general level. It’s not about any ONE book; it’s how I emotionally respond to this entire experience that is the problem. And I’ve been validating the wrong part of my reaction.

I’ve been reading a long, long time now, and I read quickly, broadly and deeply. You can sort of see how, Reality Being Reality, that over time, I would experience an increasing dissatisfaction with reading material in general. First, old people become cranky for a variety of reasons. Second, a lot of stuff in general is crap. I mean, the _good news_ is I really like the way younger people (young end of millenials and younger) think about things, and I’ve been enjoying the trend, so this is NOT a Kids These Days rant. It’s really more along the lines of, Please Stop Publishing New Books By Old Farts type of rant.

I have also, over the years, gotten better at assessing books without fully committing to reading them. I make sure that in the case of non-fiction, the authors have some credibility (look at their background, read interviews with them, read articles by them, read an excerpt from the book). I make sure I understand that whatever the book is about / arguing about is something I care about, and that I have no particular compelling reason to believe that the book is taking an Earth is Flat / Birds are not Real type of position WRT that topic.

But despite all this, sometimes I still accidentally read books that are really terrible. I’ll grind through longer than I should, hoping it improves. I’ll put it down and revisit it in hopes that maybe I was just in a terrible headspace when I tried the first time. I really do try, because if a book made it this far for me, I _wanted_ it to be a good book.

And therein lies the problem.

I need to put down my illusion of the book I wanted, and make further reading decisions based on the Reality of the Book I Am Reading. It’s _just_ like a relationship. You’re not friends with, coworkers with, a parent, sibling or child of the person you _wish_ you were with. They are who they are, and the sooner you accept that, the better.

OK. I don’t need to ramp up on the emotions of OMG it’s so terrible I can’t even. It just is. And here’s the latest.

_The Great Demographic Reversal_ is about demographics and economics. The wish: I wanted a book about demographics. The reality: the authors are economists. The problem: they have been humping their thesis for five years, and the fact that it finally happened, kinda, doesn’t mean that their explanation is correct. The specific problem: economists measure what they can measure, and then they act like they are measuring something that is meaningfully the same. If you are out there hiring people with a particular skill set, experience, capability, then you know that all labor is not interchangeable. And if you are over 50, you know that what a worker can do in 2022 is wildly different than what a worker can do in 1972, in ways that make _every_ worker able to do things that it used to take multiple workers to do. And some workers are so amplified by technology, that they can do things you couldn’t do even with millions of workers.

Of course, that would all seem to have an impact if you are looking at how the changing demographic composition of a population will affect inflation. And yet, they totally ignored that. Their inflation prediction did _happen_, but not for the reason they had.

Oh well.

I’ll move on now, and remember to stay away from the economists again for a while. Maybe. Maybe I’ll go read a lot of economists, because it’ll be so easy to assess them now versus in the past. *shrug*

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