But Is It a Recession?
Jan. 19th, 2023 07:59 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
walkitoutSo. So. So. Much talk about how we are in a recession. A number of people have been laid off from a number of tech companies. Job offers have been rescinded. Etc.
I am near the end of that time of life where I can claim to be “middle-aged”. I have seen a few recessions! Also, I am a nerd, and I read things. I have heard things like, it’s a recession when you have two successive quarters with decreasing GDP (so you don’t know until 6 months in if you were in a recession and by then, you might already be on your way out of it). I’ve heard things like, it’s a depression if you lose your job; it’s a recession if your neighbor loses their job.
I will say this: there is inflation. And since the “official” definition of recession is based on _nominal_ GDP, that makes it much harder for there to be an “official” recession. So let’s use, instead, a different conception of a recession. Let’s think of it as: money is expensive, the tide of money has receded, and you can now see everyone who was swimming naked.
And wow, by that definition, it’s _definitely_ a recession. Crypto keeps finding new distances to drop lower, and more legal trouble to get into. SPACs are all but gone. Twitter is either not paying its bills or paying them late. JPMorgan is in court claiming Frank, an email list it bought, was a fraud (and it kinda sounds like that’s probably an accurate assessment). But this gem is why I’m posting about this conception of a recession:
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/01/tesla-staged-2016-self-driving-demo-says-senior-autopilot-engineer/
I still don’t think it’s a recession, because I don’t know enough people who are struggling to find work or losing the work they have. I usually know somebody in that situation when there’s a recession. Currently, my son — who has autism, and is not a full adult yet — is transitioning from one job to another job, because the second employer quite avidly recruited him.
But money is definitely expensive, so everyone who is swimming without shorts on is getting exposed. Possibly I will update this.
ETA:
Don’t trust me, tho.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/12/recession-watch.html
With much more detail here:
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/01/question-1-for-2023-how-much-will.html
I am near the end of that time of life where I can claim to be “middle-aged”. I have seen a few recessions! Also, I am a nerd, and I read things. I have heard things like, it’s a recession when you have two successive quarters with decreasing GDP (so you don’t know until 6 months in if you were in a recession and by then, you might already be on your way out of it). I’ve heard things like, it’s a depression if you lose your job; it’s a recession if your neighbor loses their job.
I will say this: there is inflation. And since the “official” definition of recession is based on _nominal_ GDP, that makes it much harder for there to be an “official” recession. So let’s use, instead, a different conception of a recession. Let’s think of it as: money is expensive, the tide of money has receded, and you can now see everyone who was swimming naked.
And wow, by that definition, it’s _definitely_ a recession. Crypto keeps finding new distances to drop lower, and more legal trouble to get into. SPACs are all but gone. Twitter is either not paying its bills or paying them late. JPMorgan is in court claiming Frank, an email list it bought, was a fraud (and it kinda sounds like that’s probably an accurate assessment). But this gem is why I’m posting about this conception of a recession:
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/01/tesla-staged-2016-self-driving-demo-says-senior-autopilot-engineer/
I still don’t think it’s a recession, because I don’t know enough people who are struggling to find work or losing the work they have. I usually know somebody in that situation when there’s a recession. Currently, my son — who has autism, and is not a full adult yet — is transitioning from one job to another job, because the second employer quite avidly recruited him.
But money is definitely expensive, so everyone who is swimming without shorts on is getting exposed. Possibly I will update this.
ETA:
Don’t trust me, tho.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/12/recession-watch.html
With much more detail here:
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/01/question-1-for-2023-how-much-will.html