We Call It The Supply Chain
Mar. 29th, 2020 06:52 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
walkitoutThe Supply Chain is not really a unitary thing. There is Costco, for example. Small commercial enterprises buy from Costco, to stock their restaurant with ketchup or their coffee station with creamer or whatever. Households buy from Costco, to stock their pantry with ketchup, and their freezer with meat. But there are also grocery stores, like Kroger's which mostly sell to households and only occasionally to commercial enterprises. And then there are a whole bunch of things unfamiliar to me other than as names on trucks that sell to commercial enterprises, and institutional settings like school lunchrooms.
One of these chains has had a massive cliff in demand that fell, and the other has had an enormous cliff in demand. We moved most end use food production and consumption into the household supply chain, stranding a bunch of supply throughout the other supply chain.
There are not very many factories that make toilet paper. Some make for one chain; others for the other. Right now, the household market is attempting to draw from the away from home makers, but not totally successfully.
Probably what happened in part is a bunch of inventory went to hotels, schools, etc -- places that have consistently sized orders at consistent intervals. And then they shut down, stranding that inventory in those stock rooms. And there may well have been further orders overflowing those stock rooms, because they could not be turned off in time. Meanwhile, all the people who would have been wiping in those locations are not, and need more supply at home.
Etc.
It is not just TP. Almost anything exists in one form in one chain, and in another form in the other. And there is a lot of stuff that is stranded. Some of the perishables will be going to waste (milk products at the coffee station not donated before closing down the site, for example).
A large number of meals are consumed away from home: coffee and a breakfast pastry, a sandwich and more coffee, a burger and a beer, or fancier. When people eat from home only rarely, they often have a limited repertoire of things they can prepare themselves. This is leading to shortages of prepared items like canned stew, mac and cheese in a box, frozen waffles, pancake mix. Over time, and with the abundant aid available online, people will improve their repertoire, but we are now forcing a whole lot of people to figure out how to prepare meals for 1-4 people, and there is going to be some waste. Waste due to Oh That Did Not Work At All, through I Do Not Want to Eat That Much Of It. It is easy to think that switching people from drinking their coffee at Dunks or Starbucks to drinking their coffee at home is No Big Deal. I am wondering if that is actually true.
None of this, of course! is an argument for reopening sooner than is appropriate. It is a set of observations to consider, when you are assuming the supply chain disruptions which are pervasive and obvious are the result of those annoying jackasses with a year's supply of TP in the three carts they are hauling around. Or were, a few weeks ago. I mean, they probably did not help! But I suspect the problem is a bit more complex, and will continue to manifest in more ways, in the weeks to come.
One of these chains has had a massive cliff in demand that fell, and the other has had an enormous cliff in demand. We moved most end use food production and consumption into the household supply chain, stranding a bunch of supply throughout the other supply chain.
There are not very many factories that make toilet paper. Some make for one chain; others for the other. Right now, the household market is attempting to draw from the away from home makers, but not totally successfully.
Probably what happened in part is a bunch of inventory went to hotels, schools, etc -- places that have consistently sized orders at consistent intervals. And then they shut down, stranding that inventory in those stock rooms. And there may well have been further orders overflowing those stock rooms, because they could not be turned off in time. Meanwhile, all the people who would have been wiping in those locations are not, and need more supply at home.
Etc.
It is not just TP. Almost anything exists in one form in one chain, and in another form in the other. And there is a lot of stuff that is stranded. Some of the perishables will be going to waste (milk products at the coffee station not donated before closing down the site, for example).
A large number of meals are consumed away from home: coffee and a breakfast pastry, a sandwich and more coffee, a burger and a beer, or fancier. When people eat from home only rarely, they often have a limited repertoire of things they can prepare themselves. This is leading to shortages of prepared items like canned stew, mac and cheese in a box, frozen waffles, pancake mix. Over time, and with the abundant aid available online, people will improve their repertoire, but we are now forcing a whole lot of people to figure out how to prepare meals for 1-4 people, and there is going to be some waste. Waste due to Oh That Did Not Work At All, through I Do Not Want to Eat That Much Of It. It is easy to think that switching people from drinking their coffee at Dunks or Starbucks to drinking their coffee at home is No Big Deal. I am wondering if that is actually true.
None of this, of course! is an argument for reopening sooner than is appropriate. It is a set of observations to consider, when you are assuming the supply chain disruptions which are pervasive and obvious are the result of those annoying jackasses with a year's supply of TP in the three carts they are hauling around. Or were, a few weeks ago. I mean, they probably did not help! But I suspect the problem is a bit more complex, and will continue to manifest in more ways, in the weeks to come.