What is the market for tablets?

[walkitout]

Look! A use for Math!

4 million children are born every year in the US. About.
Half of all children are in depressingly poor families.

18 years of children (people are probably still buying crap for their 19 year olds, at least at a rate to make up for the people who don't buy tablets for sub 2 year olds)

multiplied by

2 million (half of 4 million)

equals

36 million tablets.

That's the _kid_ market for tablets. If Amazon is truly moving about a million kFires a week, and BKS is moving, say, a quarter of a million Nook Colors a week, and some number of children already have iPads and/or will get them out of the million iPads a week that Apple moves, then every kid in the US that isn't poor (that is to say, half of the kids in the US) will have their own tablet by some time in the second half of 2012.

If it all went to kids. Which it is not, not by a long shot.

What fraction of the cheap tablet market is going to kids? Hmmm. A quickie review of the devices I have bought for friends and family produces a fraction under three quarters, but more than half.

I wonder if I believe this result. What are the implications of living in a world in which it isn't weird for ten year olds to have a tablet in the pocket of their jacket? Is the man-bag about to acquire a juvenile equivalent? A boy bag? Will the fanny pack become cool? Hmmmm...

Could be adorable. A sample on Etsy for the younger end of the range:

http://www.etsy.com/listing/81211684/tools-boy-toddler-messenger-bag

Comments

[jkonrath.livejournal.com]

I hadn't heard rumors about a smaller iPad (but haven't been looking) - but I heard a rumor about a bigger iPad - not that much bigger, but a bezel-less screen. Apple's been pretty smart about not having an insane amount of screen sizes and having screens be an even multiple, so I'm curious if a physically smaller display will have the same pixel count at higher density or what.

I did see that the newest dev versions of iOS are being peppered with fake device IDs, like the iPhone 8 and iPad 17, just to throw off people who try to look there for clues on future devices. That's hilarious.