Current guess from Calculated Risk on when the shutdown will end

[walkitout]

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/10/shutdown-end-guess-congress-doesnt-want.html

I, personally, had figured on something to happen by around midnight tonight, but news coverage suggests that nothing is happening, so, probably nothing is going to happen tonight. I suck at these kinds of guesses.

Nate Silver weighed in, despite being in silent mode until early 2014:

http://www.grantland.com/fivethirtyeight/story/_/id/9802433/nate-silver-us-government-shutdown

It's a long-ish piece, and it's Nate Silver so obviously you are going to read it, right? Well, if not, among other things, he said (dated 10/10):

"if the current round of negotiations is resolved within the next week or so, they might turn out to have a relatively minor impact by November 2014."

I'd like to be able to say, definitively, when would be an appropriate time to panic. I don't think yet.

There is some activity on the Senate side.

http://swampland.time.com/2013/10/12/senate-leaders-step-in-to-beat-debt-limit-clock/

I feel like we're all going to be a little surprised by how this turns out.