Transplanting a Seattleite

Nella,

Thank you for discussing this with me.

Nella, you observe: "An exercise in extending the past change trend line into the future would change the results of the study in question."

I think you are probably correct about this. And I think this would be an interesting experimental move going forward with this research. How resistant are our minds to stimuli that threaten to deactivate this normally adaptive illusion (self-deception)? The manipulation you propose kind of makes it socially acceptable, in the experimental context, to reveal expected future changes. Under my interpretation of the original results, one should expect that to reduce the specific self-deception about future change that I propose helps one manage other's perception of your predictability and social value (yes, "lie," if you will, but in a measured and unconsciously strategic manner.)

I also agree that the strongest, most effective social networks should have cultural mechanisms that encourage growth, change, and productivity in its individual members. But humans instinctively, IMO, want such programs of self-improvement to be coordinated and contained, again somewhat predictable, not programs entailing everyone going willy-nilly in their own directions. Groups need to be cohesive to withstand competition with other groups. Moreover, without predictability of social partners that you have contracts of various kinds with, it is difficult for individuals to formulate their own plans for advancement (lifetime fitness enhancement).

On the other hand, the end of history illusion probably evolved in ancient periods of human evolution in which socioeconomic mobility was considerably less than in today’s western societies. It may then have been more important to convincingly signal that you intend to stick with your socioeconomic specialties, your place in the group’s hierarchy, and your politics. (A lot of this can be signaled symbolically by, for example, underestimating how your aesthetic tastes might change.)

I'm not trying to yank your chain. I just like thinking and writing about this stuff.

PS: there is a typo - my fault - in the passage you quote above. It should read, "... than this study indicates."

– Paul J. Watson, Dept. of Biology, University of New Mexico.

http://biology.unm.edu/biology/pwatson/public_html/pjw_cv.htm