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Re: End of History Illusion - Why?
Date: 2013-01-06 01:30 am (UTC)"One good way to help others feel they can easily predict us is to actually believe, and so more convincingly be able to represent, that we are not going to change much going forward."
That and the rest of what you have to say sounds like layers of delusions and "how to lie convincingly".
Also, all healthy social networks demand change over time. Social networks which insist we behave the same way 10 years on as now are totally fucked up. Healthy social networks move with us through the stages of life: reaching physical maturity, full independent participation in adult society, establishing a kinship network of our own, nurturing others, planning for our increasing care needs as we age, etc.
What we _want_ from each other, whether in network or not, is to have confidence that we will fulfill future commitments. And if the study had been measuring that kind of continuity, they'd have come up with a different set of conclusions (because people with a solid history of paying down debt and paying bills on time tend to continue along those lines, with the usual tragic exceptions).
I'm sticking to my belief that people aren't great about deciding how much they'll spend on a concert in the future because they have not rallied relevant evidence. An exercise in extending the past change trend line into the future would change the results of the study in question.